It is not just food or oil shocks. This war has screwed the existing global economy because almost 100% of any good that we consume or use in North America has embedded fossil fuels (or emissions). Electricity, manufacturing components and processes and transportation use fossil fuels. Here is a link to a Siemens blog which explains the problem in terms of emissions, https://blogs.sw.siemens.com/simcenter/embedded-emissions-the-carbon-cost-of-everything/
Whatever happens in the Middle East, fossil fuels will become far more expensive and they are not renewable. So, as a society we may need to re-evaluate how we use this precious resource. In the meantime, we may find ourselves living as we did in the 1960s or earlier while trying to build renewable energy and build resilience against climate change. (I have no doubt that the Project 2025, Trump and his tech bros will claim that the remaining fossil fuels should be used for military and defense purposes at the expense of the livelihood and health of the American public, and perhaps the rest of the world.)
The sooner we face that our global economy is in for an enormous shift and that those best prepared to weather it with concrete ideas on the way forward are those states from the global south. Secretary General Guterres has been calling for the restructuring of multilateral institutions so that they can address global inequality and climate change on a fast track. It is time to really listen and do just that.
I'm betting the couchfucker (<-one word or two?) has a hard-on thinking about all that farmland he and his bros are gonna hoover up, pennies on the dollar...
I've been worried about this since I first saw how much urea goes through the Strait. My father worked for a company that sold glue to plywood manufacturers. I can remember him shouting over the phone (this was the 50s; he didn't trust long distance) about urea resins. All the time.
So I knew it was a chemical. And I searched and found the part about fertilizer. Keep in mind that the things you list as "going up" via the supply chain will affect plywood, as urea resin is still the most important glue used in plywood. Combined with trump's wood tariffs, it won't be long before your new house escalates drastically in price; not to mention the plywood you buy to cover your windows during hurricanes and other windstorms.
The fertilizer angle is the one almost nobody in the energy commentary space is tracking, and it matters more than the crude price. Natural gas is the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, and the Gulf producers — Qatar, Oman, Saudi — built their ammonia and urea capacity precisely because they had the cheapest molecules on the planet. Block the strait, and you don't just lose oil barrels. You lose the input cost advantage that made Middle Eastern fertilizer globally competitive. Brazil imports roughly 85% of its fertilizers. The planting window for safrinha corn is weeks away. Farmers price inputs months in advance. A urea spike now doesn't hit grocery shelves tomorrow — it hits them in September, when nobody remembers why.
It is not just food or oil shocks. This war has screwed the existing global economy because almost 100% of any good that we consume or use in North America has embedded fossil fuels (or emissions). Electricity, manufacturing components and processes and transportation use fossil fuels. Here is a link to a Siemens blog which explains the problem in terms of emissions, https://blogs.sw.siemens.com/simcenter/embedded-emissions-the-carbon-cost-of-everything/
Whatever happens in the Middle East, fossil fuels will become far more expensive and they are not renewable. So, as a society we may need to re-evaluate how we use this precious resource. In the meantime, we may find ourselves living as we did in the 1960s or earlier while trying to build renewable energy and build resilience against climate change. (I have no doubt that the Project 2025, Trump and his tech bros will claim that the remaining fossil fuels should be used for military and defense purposes at the expense of the livelihood and health of the American public, and perhaps the rest of the world.)
The sooner we face that our global economy is in for an enormous shift and that those best prepared to weather it with concrete ideas on the way forward are those states from the global south. Secretary General Guterres has been calling for the restructuring of multilateral institutions so that they can address global inequality and climate change on a fast track. It is time to really listen and do just that.
I'm betting the couchfucker (<-one word or two?) has a hard-on thinking about all that farmland he and his bros are gonna hoover up, pennies on the dollar...
I've been worried about this since I first saw how much urea goes through the Strait. My father worked for a company that sold glue to plywood manufacturers. I can remember him shouting over the phone (this was the 50s; he didn't trust long distance) about urea resins. All the time.
So I knew it was a chemical. And I searched and found the part about fertilizer. Keep in mind that the things you list as "going up" via the supply chain will affect plywood, as urea resin is still the most important glue used in plywood. Combined with trump's wood tariffs, it won't be long before your new house escalates drastically in price; not to mention the plywood you buy to cover your windows during hurricanes and other windstorms.
Wait … are EGGS going to get more expensive? Say it ain’t so ..
The comedy almost writes itself at this point, doesn't it?
Sadly, yes. Who needs A.I. when the headlines take care of it.
The fertilizer angle is the one almost nobody in the energy commentary space is tracking, and it matters more than the crude price. Natural gas is the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, and the Gulf producers — Qatar, Oman, Saudi — built their ammonia and urea capacity precisely because they had the cheapest molecules on the planet. Block the strait, and you don't just lose oil barrels. You lose the input cost advantage that made Middle Eastern fertilizer globally competitive. Brazil imports roughly 85% of its fertilizers. The planting window for safrinha corn is weeks away. Farmers price inputs months in advance. A urea spike now doesn't hit grocery shelves tomorrow — it hits them in September, when nobody remembers why.
Thank you, Bryan. Your analysis is invaluable.