My question is it already too late and if it isn’t is Trump even capable of maintaining our position especially with the administration he has picked (lack of experience, morals, integrity, values)? And, what choices do we have right now to prevent loosing our place given our dysfunctional congress?
I wrote this piece because I think people must understand the consequences of what's happening. The future is not yet written, but we are on a trajectory.
That said, if you're asking me what I believe...
In craps, the worst rolls are a 2, 3, or 12—snake eyes or boxcars are the least probable outcomes. You want to avoid rolling those numbers in this game because they almost always spell disaster.
I think we just rolled boxcars.
It’s not impossible to recover, but the odds are stacked against us.
Changing our trajectory would require competent leadership, a functioning Congress, and a willingness to rebuild trust internationally. Right now, we have none of those things. Could we still turn it around? Theoretically, yes. But in reality, we are watching the dice tumble, and they’re landing as expected.
The Americans who need to read this are too lazy or stupid or shortsighted to grasp the geopolitical ramifications of what is happening because they assume the power structure will remain the same. They have no idea how good it was.
This piece is incredibly helpful in my effort to identify and organize blind spots in my foresight. I feel like I’m in a sinking rowboat scrambling to fill random holes without taking enough time to organize my approach. Thank you.
Excellent analysis. But these outcomes feel like giving up privilege more than true harm. Making life harder for us in the US by cutting back our share of the global economy. The global situation is crazy but the US role in the craziness needs to stop even if it means allowing a multipolar equilibrium to develop.
It's not that I disagree with your hard nosed realpolitik view. I'm a little sensitive about bragging. You might think you earned all those assignments. With due respect, you might have been yesterday's equivalent of Luke Farritor or Marko Elez. Smart and capable? Sure. But willing to follow orders and won't rock the boat? Perhaps. Your lack of mention of the darker side of power and writing the rules concerns me. I don't need the CIA looking after my interests. As for trading oil in dollars. Humanity needs recovery from carbon addiction. Freedom is essential. But so is life. Nothing means anything if nature can no longer sustain us and we're all dead.
Hello from a European. It is interesting to read how you consider us.
In your analysis there is one point that you left out: when your president closes the agencies that verify compliance with regulations, it is like admitting that the USA is not capable of making regulations. So will the ball pass to the bureaucratic EU or to the Chinese regime?
Hmm.... I'd have to run the order of battle on it... I'd think Russia would have the advantage largely because of air and sea power... but China would definitely have the manpower and production advantage...
I was in agreement until the bit about Europe. For one thing, Europe is not the same thing as the EU. You must have seen how, over just the last few days, European leaders have stepped up to make a mixture of joint and individual commitments to Ukraine. As for the EU, yes there is a lot of bureaucracy, but then, for example, most consumers like their manufactured products working safely and they like less rather than more pollution, including hormone-free meat. (We also like getting our healthcare free, or largely free, at the point of delivery.)The EU also provides, through regulation, a level playing field for (most) businesses to compete fairly. I see a slight irony in your decrying of unregulated power in the hands of bad state actors, yet asserting that it’s a good thing for American businesses. And anyway, there’s not so much regulation that we don’t have our own gig economies. I’d ask what’s so good about needing three jobs just to keep one’s head above water? And GDPR? Yes, it’s annoying for businesses, but perhaps not so much for ordinary citizen/consumers. In fact, your comments about Europe sound like an echo from the people (including Russian propaganda) who agitated for Brexit. There is now a lot (this has been measured through polling) of buyer’s remorse amongst those who voted for it. I’d also say, perhaps optimistically, that, as most European leaders come across as more thoughtful, intelligent and dignified than Trump and his administration, they will be - or, hopefully they will be - better able to galvanise their populations into action when they finally do recognise that the shit has hit the fan. Trump can only now inspire MAGA, which was not the whole of his support. I very much want America to pull through and survive this attack on its democracy, and I would also be happy to continue with the “Pax Americana” (until something genuinely better comes along). As I said at the start of this comment, I agree broadly with your analysis. But my perspective is European. I think we shouldn’t be written off quite so easily, and it may just be possible that we will be able to construct a dam that the Russians and Chinese can’t breach. In the longer term, this may be helpful to the US. Lastly, I would like to believe that there are enough reserves of civic responsibility and courage in America, that what is happening at the moment can be stopped and reversed.
My question is it already too late and if it isn’t is Trump even capable of maintaining our position especially with the administration he has picked (lack of experience, morals, integrity, values)? And, what choices do we have right now to prevent loosing our place given our dysfunctional congress?
Have the dice been cast?
I wrote this piece because I think people must understand the consequences of what's happening. The future is not yet written, but we are on a trajectory.
That said, if you're asking me what I believe...
In craps, the worst rolls are a 2, 3, or 12—snake eyes or boxcars are the least probable outcomes. You want to avoid rolling those numbers in this game because they almost always spell disaster.
I think we just rolled boxcars.
It’s not impossible to recover, but the odds are stacked against us.
Changing our trajectory would require competent leadership, a functioning Congress, and a willingness to rebuild trust internationally. Right now, we have none of those things. Could we still turn it around? Theoretically, yes. But in reality, we are watching the dice tumble, and they’re landing as expected.
I'm hardly optimistic.
Thanks. That is my feeling as well. So deeply sad 😢 !
The Americans who need to read this are too lazy or stupid or shortsighted to grasp the geopolitical ramifications of what is happening because they assume the power structure will remain the same. They have no idea how good it was.
Not all of us are
Present commenters excluded. But in all seriousness I have read some comments that almost make me weep they are so blind.
This piece is incredibly helpful in my effort to identify and organize blind spots in my foresight. I feel like I’m in a sinking rowboat scrambling to fill random holes without taking enough time to organize my approach. Thank you.
Excellent analysis. But these outcomes feel like giving up privilege more than true harm. Making life harder for us in the US by cutting back our share of the global economy. The global situation is crazy but the US role in the craziness needs to stop even if it means allowing a multipolar equilibrium to develop.
It's not that I disagree with your hard nosed realpolitik view. I'm a little sensitive about bragging. You might think you earned all those assignments. With due respect, you might have been yesterday's equivalent of Luke Farritor or Marko Elez. Smart and capable? Sure. But willing to follow orders and won't rock the boat? Perhaps. Your lack of mention of the darker side of power and writing the rules concerns me. I don't need the CIA looking after my interests. As for trading oil in dollars. Humanity needs recovery from carbon addiction. Freedom is essential. But so is life. Nothing means anything if nature can no longer sustain us and we're all dead.
Hello from a European. It is interesting to read how you consider us.
In your analysis there is one point that you left out: when your president closes the agencies that verify compliance with regulations, it is like admitting that the USA is not capable of making regulations. So will the ball pass to the bureaucratic EU or to the Chinese regime?
If the FAA and Boeing debacle was any indication… China versus the EU was quicker in picking up that ball. Just as an observation.
Thanks
Question... Couldn't China militarily dominate Russia if they couldn't play nice with each other? Especially in the next decade?
If need be, wouldn't N Korea possibly be a Chinese ally (over Russia) which would make them a mega powerhouse?
Hmm.... I'd have to run the order of battle on it... I'd think Russia would have the advantage largely because of air and sea power... but China would definitely have the manpower and production advantage...
I'd have to think about it more...
I was in agreement until the bit about Europe. For one thing, Europe is not the same thing as the EU. You must have seen how, over just the last few days, European leaders have stepped up to make a mixture of joint and individual commitments to Ukraine. As for the EU, yes there is a lot of bureaucracy, but then, for example, most consumers like their manufactured products working safely and they like less rather than more pollution, including hormone-free meat. (We also like getting our healthcare free, or largely free, at the point of delivery.)The EU also provides, through regulation, a level playing field for (most) businesses to compete fairly. I see a slight irony in your decrying of unregulated power in the hands of bad state actors, yet asserting that it’s a good thing for American businesses. And anyway, there’s not so much regulation that we don’t have our own gig economies. I’d ask what’s so good about needing three jobs just to keep one’s head above water? And GDPR? Yes, it’s annoying for businesses, but perhaps not so much for ordinary citizen/consumers. In fact, your comments about Europe sound like an echo from the people (including Russian propaganda) who agitated for Brexit. There is now a lot (this has been measured through polling) of buyer’s remorse amongst those who voted for it. I’d also say, perhaps optimistically, that, as most European leaders come across as more thoughtful, intelligent and dignified than Trump and his administration, they will be - or, hopefully they will be - better able to galvanise their populations into action when they finally do recognise that the shit has hit the fan. Trump can only now inspire MAGA, which was not the whole of his support. I very much want America to pull through and survive this attack on its democracy, and I would also be happy to continue with the “Pax Americana” (until something genuinely better comes along). As I said at the start of this comment, I agree broadly with your analysis. But my perspective is European. I think we shouldn’t be written off quite so easily, and it may just be possible that we will be able to construct a dam that the Russians and Chinese can’t breach. In the longer term, this may be helpful to the US. Lastly, I would like to believe that there are enough reserves of civic responsibility and courage in America, that what is happening at the moment can be stopped and reversed.
I'm not patting myself on the back, but there aren't many of us who have the combination of scholarly, practical, and oratory/writing skills to do it.
I'm happy to.
I may be raging against the wind as Walt Whitman in a vainglorious manner, or Dylan Thomas demanding not to go into that gentle good night.
But here we are in any event.
It's up to the readers to decide what to do with that information.
Thus far, I don't think I've called it wrong. I wish that were not the case.
I'd really like to be wrong.
You made an error on what if China takes over- #3 last paragraph: instead of N Korea, should say South.
Wooops. Absolutely. Trumpian slip. He'd want to defend North Korea. :P