The Day America Quit Global Leadership

The Hillbilly Elegy becomes our Final Epitaph

UN Headquarters in New York City. I attended my first “UNGA” (The UN General Assembly) in 2005. Bush, Rice, and others addressed members.

Elon Musk, the emerald-mine inheriting transplant, spouting off that the United States should quit everything—the UN, NATO, the local shopper’s club.

Just leave. Walk away.

I’m probably one of the few people you’ll ever read on Substack who’s been to these places, representing the U.S. government. I’ve sat in meetings, and represented the United States, at the UN, OSCE, NATO, OAS, IMF, WHO, OECD, World Bank, and UNHCR. I’ve also met with NGOs like Amnesty and Human Rights Watch.

The U.S. participates in over 50 international organizations and quasi-governmental bodies. Some have names straight out of a Cold War thriller, like The Zangger Committee (named after Swiss professor Claude Zangger, which is objectively a fantastic name for a committee—it deals with nuclear non-proliferation, if you’re wondering).

But why? Why do we bother with all this?

Ask a Republican, and they’ll tell you foreign policy should be two things: an iron boot and someone’s ass getting kicked. That’s it. We should probably open a factory to manufacture more steel-toed boots according to the knuckle dragging Renazican ilk currently in power.

It’s disgusting.

This isn’t just UN bashing. It isn’t just pigheaded.

It’s going to get us all killed.

Diplomacy Is Annoying. I’ll grant you.

I’ll be the first to admit: dealing with the diplomatic world wasn’t always my favorite. If you’ve ever worked with “Geneva” or the broader diplomatic corps, you know exactly what I mean. I spent my career on the security side of the house, which meant dealing with the State Department—often reluctantly. And I get why people find diplomacy frustrating.

The truth is, the U.S. has the raw power to steamroll every country on Earth. If we wanted to, we could throw our weight around, dictate terms, and crush opposition without needing a single bureaucratic meeting in Geneva, Vienna, or New York.

And that’s precisely why it’s a terrible idea.

I didn’t fully appreciate this until I was in those rooms, engaging in those negotiations, seeing firsthand how these institutions work. During my time in government, I connected my experience with the theories of international relations I had studied at GW: the system of world organizations we’ve built isn’t a burden—it’s a tool. One that saves us way more time and money than if we “went it alone.”

Why? Let me explain.

Mancur Who?

This is where my practical experience met Mancur Olson, an economist who taught at the University of Maryland and wrote The Logic of Collective Action.

Olson asked a deceptively simple question: Why does anyone ever agree to do anything with anyone? At least when it comes to large groups of people working together.

His work wasn’t just about governments—it was about cooperation in general. Why do neighbors work together for collective security (like having a police watch)? Why do businesses form alliances? Why do states enter treaties instead of just doing whatever they want?

If you’ve ever done a group project, you already understand the problem. There’s always:

• One person who does all the work

• One person who actively gets in the way

• A couple of people who coast and contribute nothing

And yet, somehow, the project gets turned in.

Why? Because despite all the inefficiencies and free riders, collective action still works better than going it alone.

That’s why we participate in international organizations—not because we have to or because we’re weak, but because leveraging the system is smarter than trying to do everything ourselves.

This was the “ah ha!” moment from Mancur Olson’s work, The Logic of Collective Action. Can we go it alone? Sure. But it costs way more time and money than leveraging the institutions we’ve built.

And here’s the big idea: we have built a system of institutions that allows us to manage the world at scale. We, the United States, have done something that no other “empire,” has ever accomplished. Figured out a way to manage the entire world without increasing demands for power.

We could, presuming the Orange Jackass doesn’t force the Republic to commit suicide, manage international affairs indefinitely. Despite all the naysayers, the international order we have built is remarkably resilient and strong. The only way it could collapse is if we destroy it from within.

That’s precisely what is occurring here. Trump and Musk are taking a sledgehammer to what took 80 years to build. In doing so, they’re dismantling all the systems that allow us to project our power for mere pennies. We get tens of thousands of dollars back for those pennies spent. The rewards are enormous.

That’s why China and Russia stand back in both stunned amazement and glee as Trump berates Zenenskyy, and Musk demands we withdraw from the UN and NATO. America no longer needs to be contained, she’s containing herself and destroying her own power before their very eyes.

It marks a radical change from who we have been for the last four generations. This is not wise, it’s not “radical,” it’s not innovative, it’s not “genius.” It’s absolute “Hillbilly elegly stupidity” raised to the level of a suicidal performance art.

The International Court of Justice building in the Netherlands. I loved the Netherlands. Chimay is an awesome beer. (LOL!) The Dutch are amazing. I stayed in Nijmegen for a period because I couldn’t get a hotel rooms in Amsterdam, which I also thought was awesome since I loved the movie A Bridge Too Far. Yes, I did go see the bridge. It crosses the Waal River.

Strength Comes from Strategy, Not Just Power

The U.S. plays the game of diplomacy and international institutions because we built it. These institutions weren’t imposed on us—we created them. They are extensions of our influence, tools we can use to structure global stability in ways that benefit us. They reduce the costs of us maintaining a system that benefits us in ways that most Americans won’t appreciate until they’re gone.

Could we leave? Sure. And we’d quickly find ourselves in a world where other powers—China, Russia, the EU—step in to write the rules instead.

Maybe that’s what “The Manchurian President,” and his crypto-lackey want. I didn’t accept those arguments before, but it’s getting increasingly harder to ignore the case.

But know this, once we’re on the outside, we don’t get to complain about the results. Even with all of our power, it will be considerably more difficult to fight against the machinery, and Americans have become very accustomed to an international order that effortlessly bends to their will.

That’s the real reason we stay. Not out of altruism, not because we’re suckers, but because it’s in our best interest to set the rules rather than be ruled by them.

You may think this is all hyperbole. Let’s explore what the world looks like for America if we follow the billionaire LARPing as a 19th-Century coal barron’s advice on foreign policy:

What the World Looks Like for Americans if China Makes the Rules

Let’s say we take Musk’s advice. We walk away. The U.S. pulls out of the UN, NATO, the WTO, the WHO, and everything else that makes up the international system. I mean that’s where they want to go with this bullshit. Let’s just cut to the chase already. We tell the world we’re done playing diplomat and that from now on, we’ll only engage bilaterally when we want to rape them of minerals, land, or when there’s a war to fight or a trade deal to cut.

Great. So what happens next?

China steps in.

HARD.

Not with tanks. Not with aircraft carriers. But with money, markets, and influence. The same tools we once used to shape the world order. Except now, the rules aren’t being written in Washington.

They’re being written in Beijing.

And I hate to admit this, those guys are smart motherfuckers. And oddly enough, they learned their tricks of the trade from us. They know how to play this game. They’re good at it. They will recognize this as a once in the entire history of the Universe moment to seize control of the international system. They will go for broke without restraint. Their ambassadors will go out en masse to countries around the world. Their companies will leverage deals. They will make an unprecedented push, and in a decade or a generation they will accomplish what took us 80 years.

What does that mean for Americans?

1. Good luck trading on “free and fair” terms.

The U.S. gets favorable trade deals because we set the terms of institutions like the WTO. If we leave, China starts shaping the rules—and those rules won’t favor us. The Chinese economy is massive, and without the U.S. leading trade negotiations, American companies would be left playing by Beijing’s rules.

That means:

• Higher tariffs on American goods

• More restrictions on U.S. exports

• China dictating global supply chains

If you think inflation is bad now, wait until the entire global trade network is tilted against us.

2. The internet? It’s not yours anymore.

Currently, the internet is governed by Western norms: free expression, open access, and minimal government control. That’s not an accident—it’s the result of U.S. leadership in organizations that set digital governance standards.

China, meanwhile, has been aggressively pushing its “cyber sovereignty” model, which prioritizes:

• Government-controlled internet access

• Strict censorship and surveillance

• State-approved digital platforms (Think: no more Twitter, no more Google, only government-controlled equivalents)

If we abandon the international regulatory bodies overseeing the digital world, China will happily fill the void—and your internet will start looking much more like theirs.

3. Taiwan is gone. The Pacific is Chinese territory.

China wants Taiwan. The only thing stopping them is the U.S. security umbrella, which is backed by alliances like NATO, AUKUS, and the Quad (Japan, Australia, India, U.S.).

If we step back, it’s over. Beijing moves in, takes Taiwan, and consolidates power across the Pacific. Japan and South Korea suddenly realize they’re on their own and start cutting deals with China instead of resisting it—because what choice do they have?

The U.S. military can still project power, but it gets exponentially harder to check Chinese expansion without alliances. And if you think that doesn’t affect you, wait until your iPhone suddenly costs $3,000 because China controls the entire semiconductor supply chain.

All of that may not happen right away, but who knows, it may happen immediately. Trump sends mixed signals on Taiwan. He may not have a choice either way. If China attacks Taiwan, and the United States has so alienated NATO that it decides not to honor its commitments to the United States (or worse, the US has withdrawn from NATO), then Japan is unlikely to assist, as will Australia. This makes it exceptionally difficult for the US to protect both South Korea (whom the US does have a treaty obligation) and Taiwan (whom the US does not have a treaty obligation to defend.)

Things get a lot more expensive and complicated without friends.

4. The dollar loses its crown.

Why is the U.S. dollar the world’s reserve currency? Because we dominate the institutions that control the global financial system. The World Bank, the IMF, SWIFT—all of these structures reinforce the dollar’s supremacy.

Now imagine we walk away from all of that. China steps in with its alternative—the digital yuan, backed by state-controlled financial networks.

• More countries start trading in yuan instead of dollars

• The U.S. loses its ability to sanction rogue nations effectively

• Your dollars don’t stretch as far because the world no longer revolves around them

• Oil could stop being denominated in dollars. This would immediately raise all prices in the US.

• The US gets tremendous leverage on its national debt by having the US dollar as a reserve currency. The ability to finance US borrowing would be negatively impacted by devaluing the dollar.

The end result? We stop being the economic superpower.

The UN building in Geneva. The UN complex in Geneva is quite impressive. It’s a series of buildings overlooking Geneva. The United States has the US Mission in Geneva and several properties it owns in the city. They are apartments that were purchased during the Cold War when the US was negotiating arms control agreements and other treaties. I remember I found SALT II staffer notes in the drawer of a bureau in my apartment I stayed. Relics of the past. LOL!

5. American expats and businesses? Good luck.

Right now, Americans traveling abroad benefit from the global framework we helped build. If you lose your passport, the U.S. embassy can fix it. If you get arrested, some treaties ensure due process. If you want to do business abroad, there are protections against unfair treatment.

Take the U.S. out of the equation, and now you’re just another foreigner at the mercy of whoever is making the rules.

• American businesses trying to operate abroad? Now subject to Chinese labor and business laws.

• Americans accused of crimes overseas? Good luck—you’re getting treated by local legal standards, not international agreements that favor due process.

• International disputes? There’s no more U.S. muscle behind you. You’re on your own.

6. Military power means nothing without influence.

Some people believe we'll be fine if we have the “biggest, baddest, military.” That’s cute. Military power only works when it’s paired with economic and diplomatic influence.

If you don’t believe me, look at Russia. Big military, shitty economy. How’s that working out for them.

China doesn’t need to outgun us. They just need to make sure we’re isolated and irrelevant.

And if we walk away from international institutions, we hand them that victory on a silver platter.

Now many of you think Trump is the “Manchurian President.” I’m not sure if that’s entirely true, but, en arguendo, let’s presume it is. What’s the world look like if Russia’s influence rises, or God forbid, Russia takes the reins?

What the World Looks Like for Americans if Russia Makes the Rules

Let’s say, for the sake of insanity, we don’t just walk away from the international system—we let Russia take the driver’s seat.

Not because Russia is an economic powerhouse (it’s not). Not because it has the soft power of Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and global trade dominance (it doesn’t). But because we decided international institutions weren’t worth our time, and we left a power vacuum for Moscow to fill.

What does that mean for Americans?

1. Welcome to a World Where Might Makes Right

The U.S. has spent decades—however imperfectly—building a system in which disputes are supposed to be handled through diplomacy, international law, and economic pressure before force is ever used.

Russia doesn’t do diplomacy.

Russia does brute force.

• Disagree with Moscow? Expect “peacekeepers” to show up in your country.

• Border disputes? Settled with tanks.

• National sovereignty? Only if you can defend it yourself.

And with the U.S. out of the picture, who will stop them? Germany? France? Brazil? They may want to, but with the US unwilling to back them, and possibly even supplying the Russians with arms, that would be a dicey proposition.

If Russia gets to write the rules, the world will look much more like the 19th century, when the strong did whatever they wanted and the weak shut up or got steamrolled.

2. Europe Becomes a Russian Playground

Right now, the U.S. keeps NATO alive. If we step back, NATO collapses. And without NATO, Europe is Russia’s sandbox.

• The Baltics? Gone. Moscow takes them back without firing a shot.

• Ukraine? Fully conquered. No American weapons are flowing in anymore.

• Poland? Finland? Sweden? They either submit or fight alone.

The result? A fractured Europe dependent on Russian energy, Russian trade, and Russian political influence. And that matters for Americans, because a weak, divided Europe means:

• Russia controls global energy prices. Hope you like oil shocks.

• Russia dictates financial markets. Good luck with your 401(k).

• Russia picks winners and losers in global trade. And the U.S. isn’t one of the winners.

3. Democracy Becomes an Endangered Species

Think democracy is struggling now? Imagine a world where Russia is the global standard-bearer for governance.

• Autocracy becomes the norm.

• Elections? Optional.

• Press freedom? A joke.

In this world, Moscow’s model—state-controlled media, political assassinations, and rigged elections—becomes the blueprint.

American influence once encouraged democratic movements around the world. Without it, opposition parties in fragile democracies start disappearing. Independent journalists? Vanishing. Political dissent? Met with an icepick to the skull.

And if you think that stays overseas, think again. Once the global consensus shifts away from democracy, even the U.S. will start seeing more and more politicians argue, Why not us too?

4. The U.S. Becomes a Global Outcast

The U.S. can now strong-arm countries into standing with us through diplomacy, economic leverage, and alliances. We make the rules.

In a Russian-led world, we don’t.

• Need a global coalition for sanctions? Nobody’s listening.

• Want to push for human rights? Cute, but Russia controls the UN Security Council now.

• Want to do business in key markets? Better hope Moscow approves of your trade deals.

Countries that once had to pretend at least to care about human rights, democracy, and fair trade will stop pretending. Because why would they? There’s no more U.S.-led system holding them accountable.

5. Your Life as an American Traveler Just Got a Lot Worse

Right now, if you’re an American abroad, you have a safety net. If you get detained unjustly, the U.S. State Department can apply pressure. If you get hurt, international agreements ensure basic rights and protections.

Now imagine a world where Russia dictates how international law works.

• Arrested abroad? The U.S. has no leverage to get you back.

• Wrong place, wrong time? You’re now a pawn in Moscow’s hostage diplomacy game.

• Global corruption? Standard operating procedure. You don’t have the right bribes? You don’t get a lawyer, a hearing, or a fair trial.

The U.S. once ensured at least a baseline of international legal norms. With Russia calling the shots, you better pray your government still has the clout to protect you.

6. Forget Free Speech—Even in the U.S.

Russia has spent years funding, supporting, and weaponizing political division inside the U.S. If they get to write the global rules, expect that strategy to go into overdrive.

• State-sponsored propaganda replaces independent media. If you think disinformation is bad now, wait until Russian-backed networks shape the entire global news cycle.

• Dissent is criminalized. Russia’s model isn’t debate your opponent—it’s poison them with Novichok.

• Protest movements? Targeted as “foreign threats.” Moscow’s rulebook doesn’t allow opposition. The U.S., having lost its global influence, starts playing by the same rules.

A world order shaped by Russia doesn’t just make life worse for people overseas—it erodes our freedoms at home.

7. China Still Wins, Too

The irony? If Russia gets to shape global power structures, China still wins.

Moscow isn’t an economic superpower—it’s a military and political spoiler. But China? China is the world’s factory. If Russia gets to build a world where authoritarianism is the default setting, that world ultimately benefits Beijing just as much—if not more.

So now you have:

• Russia dictating military conflicts

• China dictating trade and technology

• The U.S.? Just another player, not the rule-maker

And if you think we can “make a comeback” later, history says otherwise. Great powers that voluntarily surrender influence don’t just waltz back in when they feel like it.

They get left behind.

Now, what if, say, the Euros take over. It’s possible. It’s not super likely, but it could happen. You might be hoping for a Franco-Prussian savior?

Guess again.

What the World Looks Like if Europe Takes Over and Writes the Rules

Let’s say the U.S. walks away from the global stage, but instead of China or Russia filling the vacuum, Europe steps up.

Best-case scenario, right? At least Europe is democratic, relatively stable, and not looking to annex its neighbors (for the most part). Maybe a world led by Brussels, Berlin, and Paris wouldn’t be so bad?

Well… not so fast.

A piece of the WTC outside the NATO HQ in Brussels. Our NATO allies invoked Article V for the first time in its history, without hesitation, and without being asked, in response to the United States being attacked on 9/11. That’s who Musk, that uncouth, hat wearing in the White House motherfucker, wants to throw casually aside like a piece of garbage.

1. The World Becomes a Bureaucratic Nightmare

If you think Washington is slow, wait until you get Brussels. The European Union thrives on committees, subcommittees, and regulatory bodies stacked on top of more regulatory bodies. Everything takes years to decide.

Trade agreements? Buried in endless negotiations.
Military responses? A debate club instead of a strategy session.
Major crises? Handled by panels, not leadership.

Under EU leadership, the world doesn’t become authoritarian, but it becomes a sluggish, overregulated mess. The kind of world where business innovation dies under 500-page compliance forms and geopolitical decisions require consensus from 27 countries that can barely agree on what to eat for lunch.

2. The U.S. Economy Gets Squeezed by EU Standards

Right now, U.S. companies set the tone for global markets. Tech, finance, energy—we dominate because we write the rules. If Europe takes over, that changes.

• Tech regulation? U.S. companies now answer to the GDPR on steroids. Say goodbye to Silicon Valley dominance.

• Environmental policy: Europe’s carbon tax will become the global standard, forcing U.S. industries to comply or lose access to international markets.

• Trade agreements? Europe prioritizes labor rights and sustainability over economic power, meaning U.S. corporations lose leverage.

In short, America’s economic muscle is put into a European diet.

3. U.S. Military Power Becomes Obsolete

Europe is not a military power. Even now, NATO depends on U.S. firepower. If Europe leads the world, defense policy becomes an exercise in conflict avoidance at all costs.

That means:

• No hard deterrence against Russia or China—just more “strategic dialogue.”

• No real military intervention capability—because Germany still doesn’t want to pay for tanks.

• No rapid response to crises—everything needs a vote, a review, and a UN resolution before action is taken.

Without U.S. military dominance, the world’s security umbrella turns into a diplomatic roundtable that takes years to reach a decision—by which time the war is already over.

4. The U.S. Becomes Just Another Player

Right now, the U.S. shapes global systems. If Europe takes over, we don’t disappear—we just become one of many voices.

And that means:

• The dollar is no longer the world’s uncontested reserve currency.

• U.S. foreign policy becomes secondary to European consensus.

• America, for the first time in a century, isn’t at the center of global decision-making.

It’s not the worst outcome—but it’s a demotion. Instead of leading, we’re just another country in the room, following rules we no longer write.

Violence or A Softer, Weaker World Order

If Russia or China take over, things get dark in a hurry. We soon find ourselves on the back foot with our interests challenged and the possibility for conflict, even war, surging.

If Europe takes over, the world doesn’t become dystopian. But it becomes more fragile, bureaucratic, and less capable of decisive action. This might prove just as dangerous.

In either case, the United States will lose control over the world’s order, placing our interests at risk and America at best in the middle. This isn’t making “America Great Again,” it’s making America mediocre. And again, that’s the best possible outcome. The most likely outcome is an America facing subjugation, either economically, politically, or possibly physically.

The United States has enjoyed a power structure for almost a century, creating the longest period of peace and prosperity in the world. That period ends either violently (with Russia and China) or, in the last scenario, perhaps unceremoniously in bureaucratic mush.

And remember, Europe is the best outcome. It’s also the least likely to happen, I’m afraid. In international affairs, the strong do what they will, the weak suffer what they must. The most likely outcome is that China will fill the vacuum. This isn’t paranoia, it’s power politics.

The Choice Is Ours—Lead or be subjugated

This isn’t about altruism, ideology, or fairness. It’s about power. The U.S. has spent decades building an international order that—while imperfect—fundamentally benefits us. It allows us to shape trade, set security parameters, and dictate the modern world's norms.

Walking away doesn’t mean the game stops. It just means we hand the pen to someone else—China, Russia, the EU—and accept whatever rules they write. And once we’re on the outside, it won’t matter how much military power we still have, how many aircraft carriers we float, or how many dollars we print. Influence isn’t about brute strength alone—it’s about shaping the playing field before the game starts.

America’s dominance has never been a given. It’s been a choice. One we made by structuring global institutions in our favor, by ensuring economic and military alliances reinforce our power, and by refusing to let rival powers dictate the terms of engagement.

The Orange Jackass sits there in his chair, in the Oval, berating allies, acting like he holds all the cards. For a while, our power will protect us (the United States). We’re like a gigantic rock rolling down the hill with tremendous momentum.

Eventually that potential energy will be transferred into spent energy. When that happens, the jackals will leap to fill the vacuum created by America’s leadership failures under Trump.

The real question isn’t whether we can walk away. It’s whether we’re ready for the consequences when we do. Once you walk away from the table, you don’t get to demand a seat when the meal is already served.

We will be left out in the cold, wondering why we’re poorer and weaker and scrambling for scraps.

That’s what is at stake.

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