Bryan, I will not be a buyer in Space X for all the reasons you enumerated and one more…you’re making a bet on a guy on ketamine whose valuation is based on science fiction. In 2008, I spent a couple of days with Jack Ma and Joe Tsai of Alibaba who discussed bringing me on board as head of corporate comms. It was all very interesting but I didn’t join them for a number of reasons but it was not because I didn’t think they’d be successful…they already were. Fast forward to the IPO, I’m at a dinner with Barron’s managing editor who said he would not be a buyer of Alibaba because it was not like buying a share of GM, you got a share in a holding company in the Caribbean and, most importantly, they are Chinese and the government could change the game on investors…guess what happened? Alibaba hit a high of $330 at one point; after the government shut Jack Ma down, it now trades around $120. FAFO on playing games with valuations. I wish Elon all the worst going forward. This is the casino - Wall Street - shoving BS down our throats.
Ultimately this means that we may spend a generation trying to rip the deep roots of this grift from our economy and will fail because he will entrench himself as deeply as he can and leverage position, premium intelligence, and market power to shut down any challenge.
Thank you for explaining the grift in such understandable language. People buy dreams, they bet on lotteries. They are believers, not critical thinkers. Yes, they might win for a while, but if the products don’t start producing profits, they lose. Elon bought the U.S. presidency for $250M, then through DOGE captured our data to monetize. He reduced oversight of his own contracts. How much more of the rest of the world will this new influx of cash buy him?
The best summary of everything i wanted to say about the IPO, i am no longer bother to read s-1 anymore, i need to blow everything up to font 20… Note the share structures is classic, i once dealt with a listing that comes to 6 different kinds of shares (only 1 on offer. it could be done legally YES) yeah classic, The Whole point is that asking the PE question is valid at this point, base on disclosure its not hard to do a good guesstimate how that ration should have looked like but no one cares………… and no its a valid analysis to do a guestimate on PE even at IPO i done that hundreds of times before with the pros for clients… Now the problem is this. 1.77 trillion is around 1770 billion The initial capital to be raised from this exercise 75B. That’s raising 4.24% base on the valuation of a trillion dollar company which owns NOTHING. In a way ARMAMCO, much like the East Indian company, sort of owns the oil(or in the East Indian company RIGHTS TO TAX the Indians and colonial processions) now oil, and taxation on people are like metering oxygen on a commercial space station, if one is to set 75 dollars per 7 liters of air well…. That’s minting money because at that point everyone will have to pay 75 dollars every 59 minutes… so as listed on the S-1. the rocket part is losing money faster than a led balloon dropping from the air, the ai part is so fraudulent its not being shut down only because the fraud in congress and White House gave elon the roof*1 Now the satellite part, yes its making money, but facing FERECE competitors in the short 3 years cycle, some of them are hardcore old school tech that worked almost anywhere*2 so 1770 billion valuation raising 75b on income of 4b and liabilities of 9b ……. Unless some thing magical happen and all i get is B shares, yeah id pay 131 Just to use the occasion to mess with elon, (i know all the underhand tricks that make ecos wet their pants late at night.) but hey the world of finance is rigged, if you dont read the S1 please dont Fork around, it would be tooooooo late to find out you just lost your pants.
Both these groups have been investigating election fraud in the 2024 election and prior elections. I have been following their work. This is a big story whether you believe their findings or not. Election experts have agreed with them and yet no one, and I mean absolutely no one, in the media or in the election structure itself, is paying attention. I have personally asked a half dozen independent media groups to at least comment on this work. None have responded. I have written to my Secretary of State, bupkis. These two groups themselves have contacted many, many officials and news outlets of all types and received no response. It is like there is a tabu.
This is tragic to me because the only reason I can see that no one is willing to look at the evidence is that they don't want to be labeled an 'election denier'. The very concept of election denial was invented by Trump and it is not far fetched to me to see that the reason he did this was because he wanted to stigmatize anyone who questioned an election result. He does it but no one else wants the label. This is another example of understanding that what Trump's MAGA is complaining about or accusing others of, is exactly what they are doing themselves.
The business is real. The question is whether the IPO price is buying the business or the private market scarcity premium that disappears the moment it starts trading publicly.
After day one the interests diverge. Thats when the actual price discovery begins and seems to be in the right direction.
The outer ring of the space complex is doing the same thing the EV SPAC complex did in 2021. The original is real. The concentric circle is borrowing its story.
Bryan, I will not be a buyer in Space X for all the reasons you enumerated and one more…you’re making a bet on a guy on ketamine whose valuation is based on science fiction. In 2008, I spent a couple of days with Jack Ma and Joe Tsai of Alibaba who discussed bringing me on board as head of corporate comms. It was all very interesting but I didn’t join them for a number of reasons but it was not because I didn’t think they’d be successful…they already were. Fast forward to the IPO, I’m at a dinner with Barron’s managing editor who said he would not be a buyer of Alibaba because it was not like buying a share of GM, you got a share in a holding company in the Caribbean and, most importantly, they are Chinese and the government could change the game on investors…guess what happened? Alibaba hit a high of $330 at one point; after the government shut Jack Ma down, it now trades around $120. FAFO on playing games with valuations. I wish Elon all the worst going forward. This is the casino - Wall Street - shoving BS down our throats.
Ultimately this means that we may spend a generation trying to rip the deep roots of this grift from our economy and will fail because he will entrench himself as deeply as he can and leverage position, premium intelligence, and market power to shut down any challenge.
And the companies with indexing as their method will expose all of us to this mess…..
Thank you for explaining the grift in such understandable language. People buy dreams, they bet on lotteries. They are believers, not critical thinkers. Yes, they might win for a while, but if the products don’t start producing profits, they lose. Elon bought the U.S. presidency for $250M, then through DOGE captured our data to monetize. He reduced oversight of his own contracts. How much more of the rest of the world will this new influx of cash buy him?
The best summary of everything i wanted to say about the IPO, i am no longer bother to read s-1 anymore, i need to blow everything up to font 20… Note the share structures is classic, i once dealt with a listing that comes to 6 different kinds of shares (only 1 on offer. it could be done legally YES) yeah classic, The Whole point is that asking the PE question is valid at this point, base on disclosure its not hard to do a good guesstimate how that ration should have looked like but no one cares………… and no its a valid analysis to do a guestimate on PE even at IPO i done that hundreds of times before with the pros for clients… Now the problem is this. 1.77 trillion is around 1770 billion The initial capital to be raised from this exercise 75B. That’s raising 4.24% base on the valuation of a trillion dollar company which owns NOTHING. In a way ARMAMCO, much like the East Indian company, sort of owns the oil(or in the East Indian company RIGHTS TO TAX the Indians and colonial processions) now oil, and taxation on people are like metering oxygen on a commercial space station, if one is to set 75 dollars per 7 liters of air well…. That’s minting money because at that point everyone will have to pay 75 dollars every 59 minutes… so as listed on the S-1. the rocket part is losing money faster than a led balloon dropping from the air, the ai part is so fraudulent its not being shut down only because the fraud in congress and White House gave elon the roof*1 Now the satellite part, yes its making money, but facing FERECE competitors in the short 3 years cycle, some of them are hardcore old school tech that worked almost anywhere*2 so 1770 billion valuation raising 75b on income of 4b and liabilities of 9b ……. Unless some thing magical happen and all i get is B shares, yeah id pay 131 Just to use the occasion to mess with elon, (i know all the underhand tricks that make ecos wet their pants late at night.) but hey the world of finance is rigged, if you dont read the S1 please dont Fork around, it would be tooooooo late to find out you just lost your pants.
Tying two bricks to stick to see if it will float. It will be s roaring success because of where we are…
I can’t imagine how much stupidity has to exist for this offering to be over-subscribed.
Musk is a master carny.
How stupid do you have to be. Lordy. I just shake my head.
It reminds me of when GWB wanted to invest social security in stock. A massive Federal lever shoved into the stock market.
So, does this mean the space x will pay back all the money it got from taxpayers?
You do such a good job of looking deep and being complete. I wonder if you would take a look at
She Won: Georgia Used a Fake County Vote Bank In the 2024 Election
And Why We Can't Allow Legislators and the Media to Continue Ignoring This
THIS WILL HOLD
JUN 14
and or the Electiontruthalliance.org
Both these groups have been investigating election fraud in the 2024 election and prior elections. I have been following their work. This is a big story whether you believe their findings or not. Election experts have agreed with them and yet no one, and I mean absolutely no one, in the media or in the election structure itself, is paying attention. I have personally asked a half dozen independent media groups to at least comment on this work. None have responded. I have written to my Secretary of State, bupkis. These two groups themselves have contacted many, many officials and news outlets of all types and received no response. It is like there is a tabu.
This is tragic to me because the only reason I can see that no one is willing to look at the evidence is that they don't want to be labeled an 'election denier'. The very concept of election denial was invented by Trump and it is not far fetched to me to see that the reason he did this was because he wanted to stigmatize anyone who questioned an election result. He does it but no one else wants the label. This is another example of understanding that what Trump's MAGA is complaining about or accusing others of, is exactly what they are doing themselves.
AND, it is working.
Thank you for reading the receipt and breaking it down for us.
In Italy, unprepared and gullible investors are affectionately called "Parco buoi", it means "a herd of cow (to be slaughtered)"
Great article. Never deal with a billionaire.
The business is real. The question is whether the IPO price is buying the business or the private market scarcity premium that disappears the moment it starts trading publicly.
After day one the interests diverge. Thats when the actual price discovery begins and seems to be in the right direction.
The outer ring of the space complex is doing the same thing the EV SPAC complex did in 2021. The original is real. The concentric circle is borrowing its story.
Oh, and thanks for the great write-up.