I'd like to think Trump is smart enough to realize that stealing Iran's oil will be a bit more challenging in the midst of nuclear fallout. But then again Trump went ahead and bombed Iran without making any plans for the safety of the Americans in harm's way, so he likely doesn't give a fig if oil workers get radiation poisoning.
I lived on Air Force bases as a child in the Cold War era. No one had to tell me if a 3 day alert was real or a drill. The tension in the air, or lack of, was unmistakable. You can move personnel and equipment around, but you can’t fake when someone is running on adrenaline.
I fear today's statements not because of immediate danger to myself or America. Iran can't reply in kind. Russia and China won't. They benefit too much from the fallout.
I fear because I think Trump and Hegseth might have the same assessment as me, that Iran cannot reciprocate. To me, that answers why we do not see the U.S. military and government showing the actions you describe. They don't think it is necessary to prepare.
Finally, I fear because the costs of extreme escalation will mostly be borne by the average Iranian.
Thank you for showing the dissonance between words and behaviour. This is suggestive that the purpose is to create a terrible fear of nukes to persuade Americans that Iran must be prevented from having them; that's the whole game, to restore some support for this war at home. What actually happens is unconnected to the gossip and rumours.
Based on normal administrations, agreed. But this isn't that and never was. The one thing we know is that this is a regime that sees incompetence and incoherence as a virtue, and because of that everything we knew about posture and planning for such events is off the table.
Thanks for the analysis and the songs. My favorite Skeeter Davis song. Tom Lehrer! His songs were my college soundtrack. Peter Sellers' Dr Stranglove! Yes. Hahaha I needed this.
I believe Drumpf won't use nukes at this point of time. But what happens if he does bomb Iran back to the stone age" and his objective of opening Hormuz still doesn't result? If the various Iranians along the coast then hit continue to hit parked tankers in the gulf with Shaheds, still preventing maritime traffic. Does he then escalate further? Does he send in ground troops which would definitely kill his presidency and kill any legacy he hopes to have knowing the casualties American troops would suffer and the resulting unpopularity would surge much higher this time even amongst his most rabid Maggot supporters? Or would he then consider nukes as an option to create the outcome he desperately wants to justify his misadventure and gamble that this might help achieve his desired outcome while not putting Americans at immediate risk.
Or perhaps a more likely scenario, what if the IDF strikes Bushehr Nuclear Facility and unleash a radioactive cloud, and the Iranians strike an Israeli facility with similar results. Wouldn't Netanyahu then feel that he was justified to use one or more of his own nukes?
The use of nukes while not off the table doesn’t seem to be on the table, and as pointed out here it, there wont be postures, but it would also invite the Russians to use a small one on Ukraine. Judging from how much dumbed down the US military has become due to the recent purge, the worry is that … the leadership will no longer willing to make a stand against orders that is completely against US strategic interests.
I'd like to think Trump is smart enough to realize that stealing Iran's oil will be a bit more challenging in the midst of nuclear fallout. But then again Trump went ahead and bombed Iran without making any plans for the safety of the Americans in harm's way, so he likely doesn't give a fig if oil workers get radiation poisoning.
Not sure he can think that far ahead.
I lived on Air Force bases as a child in the Cold War era. No one had to tell me if a 3 day alert was real or a drill. The tension in the air, or lack of, was unmistakable. You can move personnel and equipment around, but you can’t fake when someone is running on adrenaline.
I fear today's statements not because of immediate danger to myself or America. Iran can't reply in kind. Russia and China won't. They benefit too much from the fallout.
I fear because I think Trump and Hegseth might have the same assessment as me, that Iran cannot reciprocate. To me, that answers why we do not see the U.S. military and government showing the actions you describe. They don't think it is necessary to prepare.
Finally, I fear because the costs of extreme escalation will mostly be borne by the average Iranian.
I fear that they can definitely reciprocate, it may not be immediate, and it will not be as expected.
Thank you. I love it!
Greatest film ever.
🎶🎵”We’ll meet again-don’t know where, don’t know when…..”🎵🎶
Yeeeeeee-ha!!!
I’m really sorry Dmitri.
Thank you for showing the dissonance between words and behaviour. This is suggestive that the purpose is to create a terrible fear of nukes to persuade Americans that Iran must be prevented from having them; that's the whole game, to restore some support for this war at home. What actually happens is unconnected to the gossip and rumours.
Based on normal administrations, agreed. But this isn't that and never was. The one thing we know is that this is a regime that sees incompetence and incoherence as a virtue, and because of that everything we knew about posture and planning for such events is off the table.
REM It's the end of the world as we know it.
And I feel fine. . .
Love that movie! Hope it's on the tube somewhere.
Thanks for the analysis and the songs. My favorite Skeeter Davis song. Tom Lehrer! His songs were my college soundtrack. Peter Sellers' Dr Stranglove! Yes. Hahaha I needed this.
Excellent
I hope you're not being too rational.
I believe Drumpf won't use nukes at this point of time. But what happens if he does bomb Iran back to the stone age" and his objective of opening Hormuz still doesn't result? If the various Iranians along the coast then hit continue to hit parked tankers in the gulf with Shaheds, still preventing maritime traffic. Does he then escalate further? Does he send in ground troops which would definitely kill his presidency and kill any legacy he hopes to have knowing the casualties American troops would suffer and the resulting unpopularity would surge much higher this time even amongst his most rabid Maggot supporters? Or would he then consider nukes as an option to create the outcome he desperately wants to justify his misadventure and gamble that this might help achieve his desired outcome while not putting Americans at immediate risk.
Or perhaps a more likely scenario, what if the IDF strikes Bushehr Nuclear Facility and unleash a radioactive cloud, and the Iranians strike an Israeli facility with similar results. Wouldn't Netanyahu then feel that he was justified to use one or more of his own nukes?
The use of nukes while not off the table doesn’t seem to be on the table, and as pointed out here it, there wont be postures, but it would also invite the Russians to use a small one on Ukraine. Judging from how much dumbed down the US military has become due to the recent purge, the worry is that … the leadership will no longer willing to make a stand against orders that is completely against US strategic interests.
So just let’s put out a possible scenario.
Trump hits very hard.
Iran loads a fleet of drones… containing enriched uranium… a few make it through and hit Tel Aviv. Netanyahu says, see I told you so.
Israel escalates with a nuke on Tehran.
Pakistan drops a suitcase bomb somewhere in New Delhi
Game over…
nuke. If they had a nuke, it would be a check on Israel and the US. Look at North Korea. Trump went all apocalypse on Kim.
Don’t ya think the Pentagon does these kind of “what if’s”?
A dirty bomb would conflated as a
That is not terribly realistic. If Uran would make that play, it would be a nuke. And why would Pakistan and India join the crazy?