Seems to me this is good advice, not at all overblown. Indeed, if anything it is optimistic. These mitigations assume that the infrastructure that keeps us alive will continue. No one can predict a chaotic system, but if the current group in power blunders into a kinetic war (certainly a possibility), all bets are off. A few hits on critical infrastructure puts the entire world in completely uncharted territory.
So we all do what we can with what we have, whether it is leaving or staying.
From one who grew up in the shadow of the mushroom cloud, best of luck to us all - we will need it.
I get it - barely - but it sounds like plain paranoia. It sounds like you are one them just discouraging everyone to give up, give in and just let them, to not fight them. Go quietly. Can’t do that. It’s unethical and un American
Reader: "This sounds like paranoia and defeatism. We can’t just give in—it’s un-American!"
Me: I get it. Believe me, I do. But this whole dance is starting to feel a bit familiar.
I write, “Hey, maybe consider leaving.”
Readers: “No! I must stay! Don’t tell people to run! Write a guide for those of us who aren’t cowards.”
So I do.
Readers: “This sounds like giving up!”
(Eye roll.)
Okay. Let’s be blunt.
If your plan is to wait for the Supreme Court to save you while you loudly resist in public, just know:
1) The world has already changed.
2) They’re counting on people not realizing that.
3) CECOT doesn’t ask follow-up questions.
This isn’t about fear. It’s about strategy. Resistance isn’t waving a sign anymore—it’s knowing when and where to keep your head down, when to walk away, and when to build something that can outlast the storm.
You want hope? Here it is: Survival is not surrender. But martyrdom for a country that’s already moved on without you? That’s just tragic.
That said, I also think you missed the timeline portion of the piece:
Every authoritarian regime goes through phases:
1) Delegitimization of opposition ("fake news," "deep state," "traitors").
2) Bureaucratic erosion of legal protections (stacked courts, hollowed-out institutions).
3) Normalization of exception (emergency powers, redefinition of enemies).
4) Repression—but only when it’s too late to stop it.
Right now, the U.S. is between stages 2 and 3.
The system still looks intact. But power is being centralized, and once the infrastructure for suppression is fully in place—judicial, financial, and informational—it will be too late to protest meaningfully without real consequences.
That's why I wrote the "It only breaks if you break it" piece a week ago. I'm not against dissent and protest. But if things continue on their current trajectory, there will come a time when such a protest will be suicidal.
>> "It sounds like you are one them just discouraging everyone to give up, give in and just let them, to not fight them. Go quietly." <<
No "sounds like" about it. That's *exactly* what he's telling people to do and he should be called out directly on his shit, not be provided with the cover of making it "sound like" it's not precisely what he's doing.
>> "Can’t do that. It’s unethical and un American" <<
Exactly right. Hats off, sincere salute, and more power to you.
This is awesome. Thank you for taking the time to write and publish this. I don't know how you have the time and energy for your level of high-quality output. Feel free to write a post on your diet, caffeine, and supplement regimen! ;)
I had a good conversation yesterday with a reader who’s also a journalist, and it reminded me how long I’ve been doing this kind of work. I’ve been trading words and ideas for money for over 30 years, so writing at this pace isn’t new—it’s muscle memory at this point.
That said, a few things on my desk are taking more time:
a new piece for Persuasion,
a feature for a major newspaper magazine (I won’t say which one yet, but you’ll recognize it), and
a book proposal I’ve been shaping for a while.
There are also two other publications in the pitch stage asking for bylined work, so the slate’s been full lately.
The book will take longer—probably six months or so. It’s a shift from what I do at The Long Memo, which is narrative-driven and analytical, to something closer to full-on scholarship. Not that my usual writing isn’t grounded in fact—it absolutely is—but a book demands citations, structure, and the kind of rigor that goes beyond instinct and memory. It’s not about sounding smarter—it’s about being precise.
People have asked how I juggle it all. The answer’s pretty simple: I do my day job for 8 hours, then spend another four hours at night on this—whether it’s Substack or one of the other projects.
This is what I do instead of video games or watching The West Wing for the fiftieth time. Everyone needs an outlet. This is mine.
As for a piece like the last one? It came together quickly. I studied state failure. I worked in the defense community. I’ve seen up close how regimes collapse and how resistance either works—or doesn’t.
The real contribution of that piece, I think, was introducing the idea of patrimonialism. Most people haven’t heard of it, and that’s not a knock—it just hasn’t been relevant until recently. America was, for most of our lives, a stable democracy. But I think what we’re sliding into won’t look like The Man in the High Castle. It’ll be something softer, dumber, and more corrupt. Less fascist chic, more bureaucratic decay.
To be blunt, I just don’t think Trump and his people have the intellectual horsepower for a true fascist state. Hitler surrounded himself with cunning, dangerous men—Goebbels, Himmler, Heydrich, Goering. They were committed ideologues and strategic thinkers.
Trump surrounds himself with sycophants who are somehow dumber than he is—which, frankly, is an astonishing skill set. You have to try to find that level of mediocrity: Stephen "Penis Head" Miller, Bessent, Lutnick, and whatever Fox News contributor was free that week. Propaganda Barbie, too.
There’s also a deeper structural difference. Hitler didn’t invent National Socialism—he was chosen to lead it. The movement already existed. He was opportunistic enough to ride it. He welcomed capable men as long as he could control them—through fear, bribery, or blackmail.
Trump? Trump avoids anyone smarter than him like it’s a threat to his immune system.
FWIW... I don't think anyone will "survive" all that well. In a patrimonial system, caste has to do with regime proximity, not the color of your skin (although, admitted, Trump does seem to have a racist streak in him, like we haven't seen since Andrew Johnson.)
Well how come you had a super fantastic, riveting article two days ago about how if the entire military tried to occupy the US they’d lose their assholes but your advice for the scenario where that doesn’t happen is to hunker down like a bunny a hope you don’t get eaten?
Put those testicles back on. That last article gave me tremendous hope and confidence. I want to keep going in that direction.
Ha—fair. But you’ll recall my original advice was: walk. 😏 Just saying. None of you liked that idea, so I wrote “if you're going to stay, then here's what I'd do.”
And you didn’t like that either.
Apparently, what you really want is for the answer to be: WAR, MOTHERFUCKERS!—and to go down in a glorious hail of gunfire like it’s the director’s cut of Gangs of New York.
Okay. If that’s your plan, knock yourselves out.
But this isn’t the Draft Riots. And if you were actually paying attention to that film, the message isn’t about heroism. It’s that even your blood feud gets steamrolled by history.
So yeah—enjoy getting machine-gunned to death.
History won’t care. It never does.
Also: just a quick correction. I wrote the martial law piece back in January, not last week. And there’s a huge difference between saying he can’t send 2,000 divisions to occupy the country like it’s Fallujah… and saying he absolutely can use the courts, the cops, and the bureaucracy to quietly ruin your life over the next two years.
It’s not binary. That’s the trap.
It won’t be jackboots—it’ll be jargon. Subpoenas. Lost licenses. Delayed permits. Frozen accounts. A thousand paper cuts that bleed you out all the same.
So no—I’m not saying hide under your bed.
I’m saying: don’t assume this gets solved with courage alone. It’s going to take strategy.
The last article was about hope.
This one’s about surviving long enough to use it.
And again, I’ll point out: this article is what you asked for.
I’m not writing a post called “How to Get Machine-Gunned Down at the Next Riot Against Trump,” because we already have a name for that. It’s called sedition.
And unlike the January 6 crew, I don’t expect I’d be getting a pardon.
I can’t answer for what other readers want or not. I liked the martial law article because it was very thoughtful, well researched, and said “here’s why this dipshit idea won’t fly.” Obviously disappearing every dissenter could fly, but I’d love to see someone game out how to make it not with the same rigor and attention to history as you presented. How many ICE agents are there? What types of resistance are they unprepared to face? When in history have communities succeeded at protecting themselves from mass kidnappings?
I know I can do my own research and I will. And I can read between the lines of today’s post. It doesn’t say “don’t resist,” it says, “be serious, not stupid.” I get it.
I’m also seeing some Fahrenheit 451 and maybe even Ayn Rand’s Anthem. I have to go back and reread Anthem cuz it’s been decades but if I remember correctly it’s also applicable.
When we visited China in 2017 we wondered how people live and sometimes thrive under an oppressive authoritarian regime. What we observed is what you describe: people who keep their heads down, quietly go about their lives, a thriving underground economy, sometimes an air of resignation, but finding satisfaction in their families and using ingenuity to get what they need. Ancient Chinese curse: may you come to the attention of the authorities.
what about those of us who are public figures like journalists who have no way of relocating? No dual citizenship, no income or assets to move abroad? If you’re widely published there’s no way to scrub completely? What then?
There is an excellent article in The New Yorker by Jon Lee Anderson (a heroic journalist in my view), titled The Brazilian Judge Taking On the Digital Far Right and written on April 7th. I just read it earlier today (The New Yorker is hard for me to keep up with) and although it doesn't say what you are saying here, it rhymes -- and it made me think a bit about some of the things you are saying so clearly. My health, finances and age are such that "staying" is my only option, and the so-called resistance doesn't give a sh*t about old women like me, so being less visible my only option. AND maybe just somehow helping others like me, who are alone and vulnerable -- that will be my offering to the future.
My family lived in Thailand for 12 years, and were there during the 2006 coup and the long shadow of its aftermath such as the 2010 “red-shirt riots”. Most visitors to Thailand enjoy the beaches, food, night life, etc, without realizing that the seemingly magical place they’ve chosen for their holiday in fact operates much as you just described here. Your readers who think this post was paranoid or OTT? They might want to read up on Thailand’s oppressive political climate, cronyism, rule by law not of law, and lèse majesté statute which is weaponized to silence critics of the regime. The Trump cabal, enabled by a craven GOP, are following the same playbook. Or as they say in the Land of Smiles: “same same but different”🪷
So it is written so it is done. It will be really hard not to show off and blow hard for me, however, but it is a zen skill I know I must develop now. I only started typing January 1 here so I could put my Raid On Mar A Lago diary out there since it is pure genius (fucking kidding) and I did not want to die and the kids not find it…I should have hand written it. I know better since I hate technology but typing is easy and throwing shit out the car window into space is too. Have you seen the movie Morvern Callar? Maybe I’ll see you in Ireland one fine day. I have learned recently that my grandfather’s ancestors came to Virginia from Tyrone County and then on to New Orleans to be, well, you know, the Southern Aristocracy. The photo of your daughter’s journal was exquisite and brilliant…I am sending my beloved granddaughter “Shady Grove” one today to start hers in…I cannot thank you enough for the road map. I mean that. I am sending copies to my twins. Hope your day goes well. I am turning my spacecraft around and heading back to the crab nebulae now. All the best, Mr. Finnegan. Your genius is nonpareil. p.s. I will keep reading all that you write no matter what.
Seems to me this is good advice, not at all overblown. Indeed, if anything it is optimistic. These mitigations assume that the infrastructure that keeps us alive will continue. No one can predict a chaotic system, but if the current group in power blunders into a kinetic war (certainly a possibility), all bets are off. A few hits on critical infrastructure puts the entire world in completely uncharted territory.
So we all do what we can with what we have, whether it is leaving or staying.
From one who grew up in the shadow of the mushroom cloud, best of luck to us all - we will need it.
I get it - barely - but it sounds like plain paranoia. It sounds like you are one them just discouraging everyone to give up, give in and just let them, to not fight them. Go quietly. Can’t do that. It’s unethical and un American
Reader: "This sounds like paranoia and defeatism. We can’t just give in—it’s un-American!"
Me: I get it. Believe me, I do. But this whole dance is starting to feel a bit familiar.
I write, “Hey, maybe consider leaving.”
Readers: “No! I must stay! Don’t tell people to run! Write a guide for those of us who aren’t cowards.”
So I do.
Readers: “This sounds like giving up!”
(Eye roll.)
Okay. Let’s be blunt.
If your plan is to wait for the Supreme Court to save you while you loudly resist in public, just know:
1) The world has already changed.
2) They’re counting on people not realizing that.
3) CECOT doesn’t ask follow-up questions.
This isn’t about fear. It’s about strategy. Resistance isn’t waving a sign anymore—it’s knowing when and where to keep your head down, when to walk away, and when to build something that can outlast the storm.
You want hope? Here it is: Survival is not surrender. But martyrdom for a country that’s already moved on without you? That’s just tragic.
That said, I also think you missed the timeline portion of the piece:
Every authoritarian regime goes through phases:
1) Delegitimization of opposition ("fake news," "deep state," "traitors").
2) Bureaucratic erosion of legal protections (stacked courts, hollowed-out institutions).
3) Normalization of exception (emergency powers, redefinition of enemies).
4) Repression—but only when it’s too late to stop it.
Right now, the U.S. is between stages 2 and 3.
The system still looks intact. But power is being centralized, and once the infrastructure for suppression is fully in place—judicial, financial, and informational—it will be too late to protest meaningfully without real consequences.
That's why I wrote the "It only breaks if you break it" piece a week ago. I'm not against dissent and protest. But if things continue on their current trajectory, there will come a time when such a protest will be suicidal.
Do with that knowledge what you will.
>> "It sounds like you are one them just discouraging everyone to give up, give in and just let them, to not fight them. Go quietly." <<
No "sounds like" about it. That's *exactly* what he's telling people to do and he should be called out directly on his shit, not be provided with the cover of making it "sound like" it's not precisely what he's doing.
>> "Can’t do that. It’s unethical and un American" <<
Exactly right. Hats off, sincere salute, and more power to you.
This is awesome. Thank you for taking the time to write and publish this. I don't know how you have the time and energy for your level of high-quality output. Feel free to write a post on your diet, caffeine, and supplement regimen! ;)
I had a good conversation yesterday with a reader who’s also a journalist, and it reminded me how long I’ve been doing this kind of work. I’ve been trading words and ideas for money for over 30 years, so writing at this pace isn’t new—it’s muscle memory at this point.
That said, a few things on my desk are taking more time:
a new piece for Persuasion,
a feature for a major newspaper magazine (I won’t say which one yet, but you’ll recognize it), and
a book proposal I’ve been shaping for a while.
There are also two other publications in the pitch stage asking for bylined work, so the slate’s been full lately.
The book will take longer—probably six months or so. It’s a shift from what I do at The Long Memo, which is narrative-driven and analytical, to something closer to full-on scholarship. Not that my usual writing isn’t grounded in fact—it absolutely is—but a book demands citations, structure, and the kind of rigor that goes beyond instinct and memory. It’s not about sounding smarter—it’s about being precise.
People have asked how I juggle it all. The answer’s pretty simple: I do my day job for 8 hours, then spend another four hours at night on this—whether it’s Substack or one of the other projects.
This is what I do instead of video games or watching The West Wing for the fiftieth time. Everyone needs an outlet. This is mine.
As for a piece like the last one? It came together quickly. I studied state failure. I worked in the defense community. I’ve seen up close how regimes collapse and how resistance either works—or doesn’t.
The real contribution of that piece, I think, was introducing the idea of patrimonialism. Most people haven’t heard of it, and that’s not a knock—it just hasn’t been relevant until recently. America was, for most of our lives, a stable democracy. But I think what we’re sliding into won’t look like The Man in the High Castle. It’ll be something softer, dumber, and more corrupt. Less fascist chic, more bureaucratic decay.
To be blunt, I just don’t think Trump and his people have the intellectual horsepower for a true fascist state. Hitler surrounded himself with cunning, dangerous men—Goebbels, Himmler, Heydrich, Goering. They were committed ideologues and strategic thinkers.
Trump surrounds himself with sycophants who are somehow dumber than he is—which, frankly, is an astonishing skill set. You have to try to find that level of mediocrity: Stephen "Penis Head" Miller, Bessent, Lutnick, and whatever Fox News contributor was free that week. Propaganda Barbie, too.
There’s also a deeper structural difference. Hitler didn’t invent National Socialism—he was chosen to lead it. The movement already existed. He was opportunistic enough to ride it. He welcomed capable men as long as he could control them—through fear, bribery, or blackmail.
Trump? Trump avoids anyone smarter than him like it’s a threat to his immune system.
Which it is, I guess.
Thank you for your comprehensive response! I was hoping your answer was gonna be "yeah i take this pill and you can too!" haha. oh well. fine. :)
"Propaganda Barbie" - LOVE that!
As for Hitler v. Trump, I'll take any distinction you got.
This is how white men are going to survive while allowing minorities to die.
FWIW... I don't think anyone will "survive" all that well. In a patrimonial system, caste has to do with regime proximity, not the color of your skin (although, admitted, Trump does seem to have a racist streak in him, like we haven't seen since Andrew Johnson.)
Well how come you had a super fantastic, riveting article two days ago about how if the entire military tried to occupy the US they’d lose their assholes but your advice for the scenario where that doesn’t happen is to hunker down like a bunny a hope you don’t get eaten?
Put those testicles back on. That last article gave me tremendous hope and confidence. I want to keep going in that direction.
Ha—fair. But you’ll recall my original advice was: walk. 😏 Just saying. None of you liked that idea, so I wrote “if you're going to stay, then here's what I'd do.”
And you didn’t like that either.
Apparently, what you really want is for the answer to be: WAR, MOTHERFUCKERS!—and to go down in a glorious hail of gunfire like it’s the director’s cut of Gangs of New York.
Okay. If that’s your plan, knock yourselves out.
But this isn’t the Draft Riots. And if you were actually paying attention to that film, the message isn’t about heroism. It’s that even your blood feud gets steamrolled by history.
So yeah—enjoy getting machine-gunned to death.
History won’t care. It never does.
Also: just a quick correction. I wrote the martial law piece back in January, not last week. And there’s a huge difference between saying he can’t send 2,000 divisions to occupy the country like it’s Fallujah… and saying he absolutely can use the courts, the cops, and the bureaucracy to quietly ruin your life over the next two years.
It’s not binary. That’s the trap.
It won’t be jackboots—it’ll be jargon. Subpoenas. Lost licenses. Delayed permits. Frozen accounts. A thousand paper cuts that bleed you out all the same.
So no—I’m not saying hide under your bed.
I’m saying: don’t assume this gets solved with courage alone. It’s going to take strategy.
The last article was about hope.
This one’s about surviving long enough to use it.
And again, I’ll point out: this article is what you asked for.
I’m not writing a post called “How to Get Machine-Gunned Down at the Next Riot Against Trump,” because we already have a name for that. It’s called sedition.
And unlike the January 6 crew, I don’t expect I’d be getting a pardon.
I can’t answer for what other readers want or not. I liked the martial law article because it was very thoughtful, well researched, and said “here’s why this dipshit idea won’t fly.” Obviously disappearing every dissenter could fly, but I’d love to see someone game out how to make it not with the same rigor and attention to history as you presented. How many ICE agents are there? What types of resistance are they unprepared to face? When in history have communities succeeded at protecting themselves from mass kidnappings?
I know I can do my own research and I will. And I can read between the lines of today’s post. It doesn’t say “don’t resist,” it says, “be serious, not stupid.” I get it.
Just curious, how is you posting this digitally different from what you’re saying in the article?
Exactly!!! And asking to share in social media!!
We’re living in Animal Farm 2025 (thanks George Orwell).
With a sprinkling of Brave New World and a lashing of The Handmaid’s Tale for good measure 😭
I’m also seeing some Fahrenheit 451 and maybe even Ayn Rand’s Anthem. I have to go back and reread Anthem cuz it’s been decades but if I remember correctly it’s also applicable.
When we visited China in 2017 we wondered how people live and sometimes thrive under an oppressive authoritarian regime. What we observed is what you describe: people who keep their heads down, quietly go about their lives, a thriving underground economy, sometimes an air of resignation, but finding satisfaction in their families and using ingenuity to get what they need. Ancient Chinese curse: may you come to the attention of the authorities.
Very appreciated, thank you 🙏🏾
what about those of us who are public figures like journalists who have no way of relocating? No dual citizenship, no income or assets to move abroad? If you’re widely published there’s no way to scrub completely? What then?
Replied to you in DM.
Thorough.
Making it clear to people that to 'survive' they will need to surrender. And in that sense exactly what the regime would want people to do
The alternative? Leave, or fight. There are also cases to be made for each of these.
As an aside i
No thanks, I'll show myself the door.
lol. Agreed. This isn't the plan for me... as it won't be for many.
But this is what the world is going to look like if things continue unabated for the next two years.
There is an excellent article in The New Yorker by Jon Lee Anderson (a heroic journalist in my view), titled The Brazilian Judge Taking On the Digital Far Right and written on April 7th. I just read it earlier today (The New Yorker is hard for me to keep up with) and although it doesn't say what you are saying here, it rhymes -- and it made me think a bit about some of the things you are saying so clearly. My health, finances and age are such that "staying" is my only option, and the so-called resistance doesn't give a sh*t about old women like me, so being less visible my only option. AND maybe just somehow helping others like me, who are alone and vulnerable -- that will be my offering to the future.
The strength of 1000 grandmothers! With thanks to Holly Near
My family lived in Thailand for 12 years, and were there during the 2006 coup and the long shadow of its aftermath such as the 2010 “red-shirt riots”. Most visitors to Thailand enjoy the beaches, food, night life, etc, without realizing that the seemingly magical place they’ve chosen for their holiday in fact operates much as you just described here. Your readers who think this post was paranoid or OTT? They might want to read up on Thailand’s oppressive political climate, cronyism, rule by law not of law, and lèse majesté statute which is weaponized to silence critics of the regime. The Trump cabal, enabled by a craven GOP, are following the same playbook. Or as they say in the Land of Smiles: “same same but different”🪷
Barbie bull shit
Just leave the Country.
So it is written so it is done. It will be really hard not to show off and blow hard for me, however, but it is a zen skill I know I must develop now. I only started typing January 1 here so I could put my Raid On Mar A Lago diary out there since it is pure genius (fucking kidding) and I did not want to die and the kids not find it…I should have hand written it. I know better since I hate technology but typing is easy and throwing shit out the car window into space is too. Have you seen the movie Morvern Callar? Maybe I’ll see you in Ireland one fine day. I have learned recently that my grandfather’s ancestors came to Virginia from Tyrone County and then on to New Orleans to be, well, you know, the Southern Aristocracy. The photo of your daughter’s journal was exquisite and brilliant…I am sending my beloved granddaughter “Shady Grove” one today to start hers in…I cannot thank you enough for the road map. I mean that. I am sending copies to my twins. Hope your day goes well. I am turning my spacecraft around and heading back to the crab nebulae now. All the best, Mr. Finnegan. Your genius is nonpareil. p.s. I will keep reading all that you write no matter what.