Iran: Deterrence has yet again failed - Now what?

Iran will produce nuclear weapons. Now we have yet another madman regime with nukes. What's this mean?

According to yet another intelligence leak—because under Trump, national security secrets flow like tap water—Iran has now amassed enough weapons-grade uranium to build nuclear bombs.

It already knows how to build one. It has the delivery systems. It has a command structure—primitive, but functional. Which means Tehran isn’t on the path to becoming a nuclear state. It is one.

Bravo. Twenty years of sanctions, sabotage, and shadow wars—just to arrive exactly where we swore we’d never let them get.

So now what?

The reality of small nuclear arsenals

When the Ayatollah rolls out his shiny new “Shia bomb,” and the regime holds its parade, chanting about infidels and divine justice, the strategic reality will be unchanged—for the United States, at least.

Iran might manage to build one, maybe five, perhaps ten nuclear weapons. Some functional, others probably not. That’s not a nuclear arsenal. That’s a souvenir stand.

Meanwhile, one Ohio-class submarine—undetectable, untraceable, already out there—can surface to launch depth and turn the entire country into molten glass within 45 minutes. Half the population gone. Ninety percent of infrastructure vaporized. Game over before Tehran even knows it started.

That’s real power.

Which is why Iran will never launch a missile at the United States—or, more precisely, at any NATO-aligned country. It can’t reach us, and even if it could, it wouldn’t. Because we can deter Iran. Iran cannot deter us.

This is the same logic that keeps North Korea, Pakistan, and India in check. None of them are on strategic parity with the U.S., Russia, or China. Their nukes aren’t global deterrents. They’re regime insurance.

Let’s call it what IR theory won’t: non-fuck-with-me-errance. Not about power projection. Just about survival.

Why Iran wanted nukes

Iran has always seen itself as the big wheel in the cracker factory—not just a regional player, but the rightful architect of the Middle East’s political future. It despises the Saudis. It loathes the Egyptians. But it hates the United States—with a theological, generational fury.

America, for its part, was hellbent on denying Iran that future—but too chicken-shit to take out the Ayatollah. That’s the schizophrenia at the heart of U.S. foreign policy. Fifty years of dithering, posturing, and half-measures have brought us to this moment.

Now Iran stands on the threshold of becoming a nuclear state.

So let’s run the numbers.

Can the U.S. realistically pull off regime change now?

Very doubtful.

Nuclear weapons are the ultimate veto. Against coups. Against foreign intervention.

Against history.

Can Washington still throw its weight around the region, brushing aside Iran’s objections?

Also doubtful.

Tehran now holds leverage—not because it can strike, but because we can’t. It earned its seat at the table not through diplomacy, but through physics.

Some analysts long warned that the real danger was Iran handing off a nuke to Hezbollah or Hamas and triggering a terrorist mushroom cloud. That was always a fever dream.

Could it happen? Sure—in the same way your cat could fire a gun by stepping on the trigger.

But the Iranian regime isn’t suicidal. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis are tools—messy, useful, expendable. Tehran doesn’t trust them with unregistered rifles, let alone nuclear warheads.

This was never about launching a bomb. It was always about owning one.

And what that ownership prevents.

So Now What?

Iran has the bomb—or soon will. And while that doesn’t shift the raw balance of power, it does change the rules of engagement.

Not for them. For us.

We can no longer invade. We can no longer bluff. We can no longer pretend they’re a rogue actor to be managed at the margins. Iran is now a nuclear power with de facto veto rights over regional escalation.

That doesn’t make them a superpower. It makes them untouchable—which, strategically speaking, is far more valuable.

They don’t need to strike. They just need to survive. And now they will.

Expect bolder moves in Syria. More leverage in Iraq. Deeper entrenchment with Hezbollah and the Houthis. The calculus shifts from “Can they get away with it?” to “What can we do about it?”

Spoiler: not much.

The Trump administration—now back in power—will face a cold, immutable truth: physics trumps policy. There’s no speech, no summit, no tariff, no “TACO,” no sanctions package, and no amount of Trumpian bullshit that can undo what’s been done.

And most importantly, no amount of wish-casting will bring back the era of consequence-free American dominance in the Middle East.

The era of containment is dead.

Welcome to the era of coexistence by force.

Once again—tired of all the winning.

Trump will, of course, blame Biden. But the truth is, this is Trump’s mess. He was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

How to Build a Nuclear State in Seven Easy Steps

The turning point was 2018, when Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran was in compliance. The International Atomic Energy Agency said so. So did U.S. intelligence.

Didn’t matter.

Trump shredded the deal because it had Obama’s name on it. No alternative plan. No backup framework. Just raw political theater, broadcast nightly on Fox News.

Then came the sanctions—the “maximum pressure” campaign. Not just a return to the pre-deal status quo, but a full-spectrum economic stranglehold: oil exports frozen, banking access severed, entire sectors blacklisted. And to cut off Iran’s European lifeline, Trump even sanctioned EU companies that tried to maintain trade.

Diplomacy wasn’t just dead. It was criminalized.

Then Trump labeled the IRGC a terrorist organization—a first for any state military entity. That effectively cut off any chance of meaningful diplomacy, because anyone talking to Iran’s real power center could now be accused of aiding terrorists.

Then came the strike.

In January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s top general and strategic architect. He wasn’t on a battlefield. He was traveling through Iraq. The U.S. killed him via drone—no warning, no accountability.

It was a decapitation strike. A message: you’re not safe. Not even your most valuable commander.

And if that wasn’t clear enough, Trump tweeted threats to bomb Iranian cultural sites—for the record, a war crime.

So what does all that signal?

There’s no deal you can trust. No behavior that will protect you. The only guarantee is force.

Iran got the message.

It paused. It waited. It watched to see if Europe would step in. But by 2020, it was obvious: no one was coming. Not to enforce the deal. Not to offer an alternative. Not to stop the next missile.

The Biden Interregnum

Trump left office in 2021. The clock kept ticking.

Biden entered promising to restore the JCPOA. The plan sounded simple: reverse Trump’s exit, re-enter the deal, de-escalate the crisis.

It wasn’t.

From the outset, talks in Vienna were stalled and surreal. Iran refused to meet directly with U.S. diplomats. Messages were passed through Europeans like we were back in Cold War Berlin.

Iran’s position: lift sanctions first.
America’s: return to compliance first.
Result: deadlock.

Meanwhile, Iran hit the gas. It ramped enrichment to 60%, installed advanced centrifuges, unplugged IAEA cameras, kicked out inspectors. The breakout time dropped from one year to a few weeks.

And the Biden administration?

It blinked. It hesitated. Then it froze.

The political math didn’t work. Biden couldn’t rejoin the deal without Congress—and Congress wasn’t interested. MAGA Republicans, pressured by Trump, opposed any effort. Hawks in both parties sounded alarms about “appeasement.” Israel, once again, lobbied hard against restoration.

The diplomatic window narrowed. Then it shut.

Then came 2022. Mahsa Amini.

Nationwide protests erupted. The regime cracked down brutally—beatings, blackouts, executions. Biden pivoted to human rights rhetoric. Publicly, the White House stood with the protesters. Privately, any remaining diplomatic channel vanished.

By 2023, the JCPOA was a corpse. No resurrection. No Plan B. Just strategic drift repackaged as prudence.

Iran, meanwhile, crossed every red line:

• The deal’s limits? Gone.

• The inspectors? Gone.

• The uranium stockpile? Ballooning.

• Its alliances? Strengthened—with Russia and China.

The IAEA all but admitted it had no visibility. And Washington quietly shifted from “prevent Iran from getting a bomb” to “manage the fallout when they do.”

And Then Came 2024

Iran didn’t test a bomb. It didn’t need to. It just kept enriching, kept expanding, kept preparing.

Then came the 2024 election. Biden and Harris lose. Trump returns to power, flanked by a team eager to “flatten Gaza,” partner with Israel on regional dominance, and crush Iranian proxies in Yemen and Lebanon.

So if you're Tehran, and that’s what you're seeing—what do you do?

You build the bomb.

Fast.

And that’s exactly what Iran did.

This Is the Endgame

Iran made the choice. But America forced their hand.

The situation before Trump was precarious—but it was stable. There was a deal. There was visibility. There was a slim chance that Iran might stay non-nuclear.

After 2018, that chance vanished.

Trump’s betrayal of the deal, escalation of conflict, and normalization of assassination made it clear: Iran would always face either a hostile America or an erratic one. There would never be safety without a nuclear deterrent.

So Iran chose sovereignty. And it chose the bomb.

And here we are.

… Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

PS: Start the chess clock… 60-75 days to a report of a seismic event confirming an underground test of roughly a 3-7 kT yield. Boom. After that, it’s all over, boys and girls. Warheads go on missiles, and that’s all she wrote.