There was a time when political collapse could still be described in speculative language—“What if?”
That time is over.

I haven’t written in awhile on this, because I didn’t really see the clock as changing all that much. However, our march to authoritarianism continues, especially post the flurry of decisions in June from the Supreme Court, and the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” which strips millions of their healthcare, builds the largest federal police force in our Nation’s history, and we march ever so closer to the end.

The lights are flickering. The machinery is humming. And the people at the controls have stopped pretending.

Since I last wrote, we’ve moved from four minutes and 30 seconds to four minutes on the clock. And unlike three months ago, when creeping authoritarianism could still be masked behind budget maneuvers or vague threats, now it has a uniform, a doctrine, and a calendar.

The countdown has accelerated. And here's why:

1. Marines in the Streets

For the first time in over thirty years, active-duty U.S. Marines are deployed in a major American city—Los Angeles, and have been now for almost a month. We have threats from the President to deploy Marines elsewhere in the United States. Roughly a company (200 men) is set to deploy to Florida. Not National Guard. Not reserve forces. Full-fledged federal troops, operating under “Title 10 authority” (in their support of alleged Army National Guard callups), were dispatched to manage “domestic unrest” and “immigration enforcement support.”

They didn’t arrive with fanfare. They arrived with orders. In formation. With real-world arrest power, not just optics. Within days, Angelenos watched as Marines in camouflage and body armor zip-tied civilians near federal buildings and swept immigrant neighborhoods in “support” of ICE operations.

All of it a violation of Posse Comitatus in my view. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court doesn’t seem to agree.

What was unthinkable five years ago is now protocol. And no one stopped it. Because no one can stop it.

This is not just a test run. It’s a normalization campaign. Once the military is used for domestic policing—even in “support roles”—the civil-military firewall is breached.

It will not be rebuilt.

2. The Supreme Court

In a June 27 decision (Trump v. CASA), the Supreme Court—6‑3—stripped district courts of the ability to issue nationwide injunctions against federal actions, allowing authorities to roll out executive orders like Trump’s birthright citizenship ban on a state-by-state basis.

This effectively gives the executive a playbook for geographic patchwork authoritarianism, blunting the judiciary's ability to check presidential overreach.

Why it matters: The Court didn’t just enable a policy. It’s enabling a whole strategy for enforcement-by-jurisdiction—no more universal protections.

When taken in connection with the Court’s position in concluding near-total immunity for presidents’ official acts (Trump v. United States), the result is codifying decades of unaccountable executive privilege. Thus, Trump continues to push the bounds in every possible way, enabled by the Supreme Court. Thus, the President will violate laws across the country, but the “remedy” under the Supreme Court’s opinion is a patchwork of civil rights cases that need to be filed across the country, and on a case-by-case basis.

3. Jus Soli will soon be gone

Trump’s executive order to revoke birthright citizenship is no longer rhetorical theater—it’s administrative policy.

The order targets children born to undocumented immigrants and “non-qualified aliens,” denying them automatic citizenship at birth. It doesn’t repeal the 14th Amendment outright. It reinterprets it—through an administrative memo, backed by the DOJ, enforced by ICE, and now allowed to proceed state-by-state thanks to the Court’s recent ruling.

In practice, this creates two tiers of American birth: those whose citizenship is assumed, and those whose citizenship must be proved, defended, or denied at the whim of executive enforcement.

Thanks to the Supreme Court’s buffoonery, a baby born in Texas might be protected. One born in California might not. And the legal process to challenge that denial could take years—years during which the child remains stateless. All of which is a violation of federal law, treaty obligation, and prior Supreme Court opinion/precdent. But I guess Justice Thomas needed a new RV, and the rest of the “conservative majority,” took whatever other goodies were offered. Thus, the Supreme Court moves from a legal interpretive body into a politburo.

This is not a trial balloon. This is how fascism moves: administratively, procedurally, silently.

Through paperwork.

4. Plenary and Sole Presidential Control of the Executive Branch

In a stunning decision, the Supreme Court handed the president unilateral authority to restructure, purge, or repurpose federal agencies—no congressional approval required. By siding with the administration's claim of inherent control over the executive branch, the Court dismantled decades of statutory guardrails, not to mention the separation of powers inherent in the Constitution.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (decided last year) the Supreme Court killed the Chevron doctrine. This 40-year precedent told courts to defer to federal agencies when interpreting vague or ambiguous laws.

By overturning Chevron, the Court stripped executive agencies—like the EPA, FDA, or Labor Department—of their ability to act independently when Congress hasn’t spelled things out precisely. Now, it’s up to courts, not agencies, to decide how laws should be interpreted.

Here’s what that means in plain English:
The president can now restructure or neuter entire agencies, and courts are less likely to defer to expert regulators pushing back. If a future administration wants to, say, deregulate pollution limits or rewrite labor protections, it no longer needs to prove that its interpretation is “reasonable”—only that it’s plausible enough to survive judicial review.

In short:

• Agencies lose autonomy

• Judges—not scientists, economists, or public experts—become the final word

• Presidents gain sweeping leverage over what the federal government

In Trump v. AFGE, the Supreme Court issued a shadow-docket stay in early July—lifting a lower court’s injunction and greenlighting the Trump administration’s executive order to undertake mass federal layoffs and agency reorganizations this summer.

• What happened: A district judge had blocked the administration’s plan, citing constitutional limits on executive power and potential harm to public services. The government appealed directly to the Supreme Court.

• The Court’s action: In an 8–1 unsigned emergency order, the Court stayed that injunction, allowing agencies to proceed with layoffs under Executive Order 14210 and related memos—all while the lower courts continue to litigate the legality of the restructuring.

• Why it matters: It effectively permits a top-down purge of the civil service, including traditionally protected roles, with the legal rationale that the president can reorganize the executive branch without Congress—for now.

• Justice Jackson’s dissent: She warned this “wrecking‑ball” approach destroys institutional memory and violates separation‑of‑powers principles.

This ruling doesn’t settle the legality—but it enables a sweeping transformation of American governance, carried out by executive fiat, with only belated judicial review.

This ruling doesn’t just weaken the “deep state.” It retools the entire executive branch into something far more loyal—and far more dangerous.

What used to be the separation of powers is now a permission slip: the president can fire civil servants en masse, reassign regulatory duties, and override agency missions—using nothing more than an executive order.

It's not reform. It's consolidation.

5. The Consent of the Governed Has Been Replaced by the bullying of political terrorism

Representative institutions no longer govern you. You are managed by interlocking executive agencies, fortified by a politicized judiciary, enabled by a willful Congress that endorses after the fact, and enforced by a domestic militarized apparatus that answers only to the executive branch.

The President openly threatens to jail opponents or strip them of citizenship. Miles Taylor, Chris Krebs, James Comey, John Brennan, Elon Musk (although fuck that guy, but as a political matter, he should be included) & Rosie O’Donnell. Those are the people we know about.

ICE conducts raids with armored vehicles and biometric scanners. DHS shares facial recognition data across states without warrants. State governments brag about circumventing federal asylum law by deputizing private militias.

Meanwhile, the public is still arguing about tone. About “polarization.” About whether the Fourth of July felt different this year.

As if we haven’t already crossed the Rubicon.

The institutions that once restrained authoritarian overreach are either captured, complicit, or cowed.

6. ICE Detentions Intensify: The Domesticization of Authoritarian Tactics

In cities across America—Los Angeles, New York, Washington State—ICE agents are deploying like an occupying force. They’re arresting individuals with no criminal history, raiding homes, offices, and even courthouses. They arrest not just those who might have administrative warrants, but government officials, judges, or anyone who might oppose ICE’s actions. Immigrant communities are living in fear as federal agents sweep through neighborhoods in armored vehicles, zip-tying civilians and triggering wholesale terror.

This isn’t immigration enforcement—it’s state-backed intimidation engineered to suppress dissent and fracture civic trust. ICE isn’t just targeting migrants; it’s leveraging fear to normalize militarized policing on domestic soil. With over 2,800 arrests in Los Angeles since June and over 59,000 people held in overcrowded detention centers, the reach and ferocity of these operations eclipse anything we’ve seen in decades.

Couple that with Congress funneling upwards of $178 billion into ICE’s expansion—including funding vast new detention camps like “Alligator Alcatraz”—and you’ve got a federal force more potent than some countries’ militaries, backed by legal and budgetary support from all branches of government. And when state and local officials raise objections, ICE shrugs it off as “supporting enforcement,” not recognizing—or not caring—that what they’re erecting is a model of authoritarian governance.

This isn’t about removing “criminals.”

It’s about terrorizing whole communities into compliance and acquiescence.

The Calculation: 4:00 Minutes to Midnight

This is not about speculation anymore. This is about trajectory.

• Marines on American soil.

• A Supreme Court that has blessed legal impunity and executive autonomy.

• Birthright citizenship is increasingly subject to political discretion.

• What was national civil liberties reduced to regional privileges, and only those with the resources to challenge the injustices in a patchwork of cases

• A public too overwhelmed or anesthetized to resist.

The last time this many institutional red lines were crossed, it wasn’t a democracy that emerged. It was a strongman state with elections as spectacle.

The system is not correcting. It is consolidating.

Four minutes is not a metaphor. It is the blink between law and force. Between governance and rule.

What Now?

1. Stop Waiting for a Bounce-Back
There is no return to normal. There is only refusal, preparation, and realignment.

2. Fortify Local Resistance
Governors, mayors, universities, hospitals, sheriffs—every node of civil society must be prepared to non-cooperate. Make enforcement difficult. Make it visible. Make it shameful.

3. Build Parallel Structures
From encrypted mutual aid to second residency strategies, now is the time to reduce your exposure to a single legal jurisdiction.

4. Tell the Truth While You Still Can
Authoritarianism doesn’t arrive with a flag. It arrives with a form. A database. A knock. If you see it, say it—before it’s illegal to do so.

Final Word

Democracy does not die overnight.
It dies minute by minute, while people wait for someone else to notice.

This is your four-minute warning.
Next time, there may not be time left on the clock at all.

Following a deeper assessment of the past three weeks, the Democracy Death Clock has been revised: from seven to four minutes and thirty seconds to midnight, marking a historic collapse in the American democratic experiment.

Since the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed an accelerating descent: from creeping authoritarianism into what can only be described now as active regime consolidation. Executive power is no longer expanding—it is dominating. Economic nationalism is no longer rhetoric—it is law. Media independence is no longer threatened—it is shrinking. Foreign policy has ceased to be strategic—it is now a tool of domestic control.

We are no longer in a period of warning. We are in a moment of breakage. A single court ruling, a single act of congressional passivity, or an additional executive seizure of power could mark the final transition from authoritarian drift to full authoritarian capture.

Four and a Half Minutes to Midnight

If you’ve been following the scale we introduced at the beginning of this project, the shift is unmistakable. What has occurred since our last assessment has been breathtaking in both scope and speed. The rule of law is collapsing. The architecture of democratic governance is being bypassed, hollowed out, or ignored. We are watching a patrimonial regime form in real time.

Here is what we’ve seen in just the past few weeks:

• Open defiance of judicial authority—including orders from federal courts and the Supreme Court—by the President of the United States.

• Suppression of dissent and the erosion of civil liberties, with no effective legal redress available to victims.

• Chilling pressure on the media and Congress, where journalists and lawmakers alike have openly described their fear of reprisal for speaking out or voting against the executive.

• Lethal force abroad is used not as a matter of national defense but as a display of raw executive power aimed at intimidating allies and reshaping global influence by coercion.

• Encrypted communications among senior national security officials, used explicitly to avoid compliance with the National Archives and Records Act—effectively operating an unaccountable shadow command structure.

• Institutional coercion through state apparatus, with law firms, universities, and businesses targeted for criticism or disobedience, and punished through retaliatory audits, investigations, or regulatory harassment.

• State-sponsored kidnapping and due process violations, with individuals seized from U.S. streets, detained without charge, and kept in defiance of explicit court orders.

• Conspiracy with foreign leaders to violate habeas corpus protections, including conversations and agreements made in the Oval Office.

• Trade and tariff policy executed by executive fiat, in direct violation of congressional authority, with no meaningful opposition from the legislative branch.

• Congressional loyalty tests: Several members have been removed from committee assignments for “disloyalty”—a first in modern political practice without a criminal basis.

• DOJ reorganization: The DOJ's realignment to report through a “National Legal Office” structure created by executive order is unprecedented.

• Direct weaponization of the Justice Department to bring felony charges against individuals like Chris Krebs and Miles Taylor. These are unprecedented actions by the President to direct the Department of Justice. This one is particularly ironic given how “MAGA” whines about this. You want to see what weaponization of the Justice Department looks like? Take a look in the mirror, you red-hat-clad bastards.

These are not warning signs. These are the acts of a captured state.

And they lead us to an unavoidable conclusion.

We are at an inflection point unprecedented in American history.

The upcoming rulings in the J.G.G. and Garcia cases may determine whether the Attorney General, Vice President, and President of the United States are in criminal contempt of court. This constitutional moment would redefine the limits of law and governance in our time.

Meanwhile, the administration’s economic policies—particularly its reckless tariff regime—have shattered the global trading system, destabilized U.S. bond markets, and called the long-term viability of the U.S. dollar into question.

None of this is normal. None of this is procedural.

This is how a democratic republic dies.

Read more

Following a deeper assessment of events, the Democracy Death Clock has been adjusted from 8 minutes after Trump’s election and inauguration to 7 minutes to midnight as of today—marking an even more dangerous slide toward authoritarian rule. Since the beginning of 2025, key developments in executive power consolidation, economic nationalism, election interference, media suppression, and international destabilization have accelerated the collapse of democratic norms.

Seven Minutes to Midnight

After today’s Supreme Court ruling and the White House’s refusal to condemn rising political violence, the Democracy Death Clock has moved forward by another minute. We are now just 6 minutes from democratic collapse.

• The Supreme Court barely ruled against the White House’s illegal impoundment of funds.

• The administration hinted at legitimizing violence against judges.

• State courts continue to entrench partisan election laws.

We are no longer creeping toward authoritarianism—we are accelerating toward it. But why? What exactly happened, and what does it mean?

Read more

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the estimated likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe, in the opinion of the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Throughout much of my life, the “minutes to midnight,” came to mean how close the United States and the USSR were to a full exchange of nuclear weapons, and by extension, the likely end of human civilization.

The closest the clock ever came to “midnight,” in my lifetime was 2018 and today. Most people might think it was during the Cold War. There were plenty of “close calls” during that time, 1981, 1984, and when the wall fell (because of concerns the Russians might launch attacks in the final “death throws” of Communism.)

Before Trump was elected the 47th President, the closest the Doomsday Clock ever was to midnight was 2018, the last time Trump was President:

• The U.S. withdrew from key arms control agreements, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, raising fears of a renewed arms race with Russia.

• The administration expanded the role of nuclear weapons in military strategy, including developing new, smaller, "usable" nukes.

• The U.S. and North Korea exchanged heated rhetoric, with Trump famously threatening "fire and fury" against Pyongyang.

• The Trump administration repealed climate regulations, rolling back environmental protections. This led to an ignored scientific consensus on climate change worsening, with the U.S. pulling out of international climate cooperation.

At the moment, the clock sits at 89 seconds. Again, thanks to Donald Trump.

• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have heightened nuclear tensions, with concerns over potential escalation and breaches of nuclear safety protocols.

• Arms Control Erosion: Deterioration of key treaties, such as Russia's suspension of the New START agreement, has undermined global nuclear stability.

• Artificial Intelligence: Rapid AI advancements, particularly in military applications, pose new risks without proper regulation.

• Threats against US allies, trade sanctions, and the chance of global economic collapse.

The idea behind the Doomsday Clock is that it is a combination of quantitative and qualitative measures that gives a visual cue as to how much instability exists in the world system, and how likely that system is to generate an event that kills all of mankind.

The closer the clock is to “midnight,” the more likely the “black swan” event that kills us all. When the clock strikes “midnight,” theoretically, the chance of a black swan event hits 100% and mankind is destroyed.

The Long Memo has created its clock - the Democracy Death Clock. We aren’t tracking the likelihood of a black swan event that ends mankind, instead, we’re tracking the chance that the US is heading into an unchecked autocracy.

This project comes as a result of the questions that I get asked every week. These questions disturb me greatly. They disturb me not because of the people asking me the questions. I feel genuine empathy for them. They disturb me because we should not have to ask these questions, but here we are. They are questions about whether America is becoming a dictatorship? Will they be sent to death camps? How will we know if it is too late? How will we know when to “get out,” (hint: now is the time if that is how you feel.)

So I’ve developed a version of the “Doomsday Clock” to give people a metric to evaluate where things stand. I’ll give you a baseline, and then we’ll evaluate things as they arise.

Here’s how the model works:

The Democracy Death Clock Model

The Democracy Death Clock measures how close the United States is to full authoritarian rule, using a structured evaluation of democratic backsliding. Updated periodically (not less than monthly), the clock moves forward or backward based on key developments across six critical variables:

1. Electoral Integrity & Political Legitimacy – Examines election interference, suppression tactics, and the erosion of competitive democracy. Events like a legislature overturning election results or widespread voter disenfranchisement accelerate the clock.

2. Judicial Independence & Rule of Law – Tracks the extent to which courts remain independent or become instruments of executive power. Court rulings that eliminate checks and balances push the clock forward.

3. Militarization & Police State Expansion—This section evaluates the use of force against civilians, expansion of federal security powers, and suppression of dissent. The deployment of military units for domestic control signals a major leap toward midnight.

4. Media Suppression & Propaganda – Monitors press freedom, government crackdowns on journalists, and state-controlled messaging. A silenced or state-dominated press is a key warning sign of authoritarian consolidation.

5. Cultural & Social Control – Assesses ideological enforcement, mandatory loyalty oaths, book bans, and persecution of marginalized groups. When compliance with the ruling party becomes mandatory for social participation, democracy nears collapse.

6. International Isolation & Realignment – Observes shifts in foreign policy, including U.S. withdrawal from democratic alliances and alignment with autocratic regimes. A complete break from democratic norms globally would mark the final minutes before midnight.

Each event is weighted based on its impact, with more significant structural shifts moving the clock forward by minutes, while smaller trends contribute incremental seconds. If an unexpected pro-democracy development occurs—such as an independent court ruling or a mass political resistance movement—the clock may pause or move slightly backward. The goal is to provide a clear, data-driven warning about the accelerating collapse of American democracy.

Let me be clear, readers will never see the clock strike 12:00:00. In all likelihood, the closest readers will ever see the clock get is 11:59:00 if I had to guess. If we’re less than 60 seconds to midnight, America is a place that is well down the path of looking like the one I depicted in “The Erasure of America.” As such, Substack won’t exist (or if it does, every Substack is “How much do you love Donald Trump!”)

You’ll unlikely be able to read anything like The Long Memo. We’ll never talk again (assuming I’m not shot in the head. I intend to have long fled America before then.)

I’ll also posit a hypothesis: You will never see the clock go back to before 11:45:00 again. The clock likely stood at 15 minutes to midnight around 2012–2016, during Barack Obama's second term or the lead-up to Trump’s first election. Why:

Why 2012–2016?

1. Democracy Was Under Strain, But Not in Crisis

   • The U.S. was still classified as a “full democracy” or “flawed democracy” by global democracy indexes.

   • There were partisan divides, but political violence and election interference had not yet escalated to existential threats.

2. Key Warning Signs Were Emerging

   • 2013: Shelby County v. Holder (SCOTUS gutted the Voting Rights Act, allowing states to pass restrictive voting laws).

   • 2014: Rise of hyper-partisan media (Fox News, Breitbart, and social media radicalization fueled polarization).

   • 2016: Russian interference in U.S. elections and Trump’s “rigged election” rhetoric planted the seeds for future destabilization.

3. Pre-Trump Normalcy

   • The U.S. still participated in international democratic institutions.

   • The Supreme Court, Congress, and media remained relatively independent.

   • While gerrymandering and voter suppression existed, they had not yet escalated into full-blown election subversion.

The Transition to 10 Minutes to Midnight

• 2016 Election: Trump’s victory and rise of election disinformation.

• 2017–2019: First impeachment, deep political polarization, rise of conspiracy-driven politics.

• 2020: Trump’s attempt to overturn the election and the January 6 insurrection.

• 2021–2024: Ongoing democratic backsliding, however Biden slowed the rate of institutional decay.

At the beginning of the 2024 election, I judged that the US was “10 Minutes to Midnight.” With the election of Trump, the US jumped from 10 minutes to eight (and now seven for the first report). I’ll explain in the first post why that is the case, but there we are.

The Democracy Death Clock Rubric

A structured scale from a healthy democracy (30 minutes to midnight) to brutal dictatorship (Midnight) in 5-minute increments.

• 🕰️ 30 Minutes to Midnight – Completely Healthy Democracy

  • Free and fair elections.

  • Independent judiciary and press.

  • Strong checks and balances.

  • High civic engagement and trust in institutions.

• 🕰️ 25 Minutes to Midnight – Strong Democracy with Minor Flaws

  • Some partisan gerrymandering.

  • Occasional judicial bias.

  • Corporate influence in politics.

  • Institutions still function independently.

• 🕰️ 20 Minutes to Midnight – Flawed Democracy

  • Growing polarization and wealth inequality.

  • Increased government overreach.

  • Some voter suppression tactics.

  • Declining trust in democratic institutions.

• 🕰️ 15 Minutes to Midnight – Democratic Decline Begins

  • Attacks on press credibility and judicial independence.

  • Executive power expanding.

  • Erosion of voting rights (e.g., gutting of Voting Rights Act).

  • Growing extremism and political violence.

• 🕰️ 10 Minutes to Midnight – Warning Signs of Authoritarianism

  • Widespread gerrymandering and election interference.

  • Government intimidation of journalists and media.

  • Protest suppression and crackdown on dissent.

  • Court-packing or judicial capture attempts.

• 🕰️ 5 Minutes to Midnight – Authoritarian Takeover Underway

  • Judiciary no longer independent.

  • Elections are manipulated or heavily restricted.

  • Opposition parties face legal or financial barriers.

  • State-run propaganda dominates media narratives.

  • Internal surveillance increases.

• 🕰️ 0 Minutes (Midnight) – Full Dictatorship

  • One-party rule established.

  • Judiciary is completely neutralized.

  • Elections are abolished or purely ceremonial.

  • Dissent is criminalized; mass political purges occur.

  • Press is state-controlled; loyalty to the regime is mandatory.

  • Military/police enforce political ideology with violence.

Conclusion

The Democracy Death Clock is not a prophecy or a dramatization—it is a structured measure of where we are based on observable trends and historical precedent. The fact that such a model is necessary at all should be disturbing. The very idea that we need a system to track whether the United States is descending into authoritarian rule is, in itself, a warning.

As you will see, we are beyond the early warning signs. The institutions meant to preserve democracy are under direct assault, and the pace of their erosion is accelerating. The question is not whether America is at risk of becoming an autocracy; the question is how much time remains before that transformation is complete.

This is not a drill. It is not a thought experiment. It is a crisis unfolding in real time. The Democracy Death Clock exists to document that reality, month by month, minute by minute.